In early January, Israel was quietly finalizing plans for a large-scale operation along its northern border. More than a year had passed since a US-brokered ceasefire ended months of open conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which had culminated in a ground invasion of southern Lebanon by Israeli forces.
The Lebanese government, which had committed to disarming the Iran-backed group in the November 2024 deal, was failing to fulfill its promise, Israeli officials told CNN. It was time, they felt, to launch another operation to once and for all end Hezbollah’s ability to launch rockets into Israeli communities.
Eight days into 2026, Israel’s calculations changed dramatically. Huge anti-regime protests swept across Iran, and suddenly it was Hezbollah’s main supporter who found himself shaken. Dealing with Iran became the supreme priority for Israeli military planners, especially as it required close coordination with the United States in what would become a major joint operation.
But plans for a new attack against Hezbollah remained ready.
On March 2, less than 48 hours after Israel and the United States launched coordinated attacks on Iran, Hezbollah fired six rockets into northern Israeli territory, giving Israel the cue it had been waiting for.
“Hezbollah fell into a strategic ambush,” the head of Israel’s Northern Command, Major General Rafi Milo, said last week, calling the group’s attack on Israel – a response to Israeli airstrikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei – a “serious mistake”. He promised that the attacks would continue until Hezbollah suffered a “serious blow.”
Israel has unleashed successive waves of attacks across Lebanon, saying it is targeting senior Hezbollah operators, command infrastructure, and military training facilities.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued dozens of , displacing hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians north beyond the Litani River. Lebanon’s health ministry said on Wednesday that more than 680 people had been killed.
Israel had already established a military position in southern Lebanon following the November 2024 ceasefire, taking five
In recent days, his forces have advanced more than a kilometer into Lebanese territory, calling the advance a buffer area of ”forward defense.”
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned Israel’s advance, accusing the country of showing “no respect for the laws of war, nor for international laws.” At the same time, he accused Hezbollah of betraying the country and banned its military activities.
Hezbollah was once considered one of the world’s most powerful non-state actors, fueled by $1 billion a year from Iran for two decades, according to a former senior military official. Israel decapitated the leadership of the Iranian proxy and targeted its vast arsenal of missiles. But Hezbollah still managed to fight back, launching hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel, often coinciding with a series of Iranian ballistic missiles. On Wednesday night, Hezbollah launched more than 100 rockets in a single volley.
The group has also carried out direct attacks on IDF positions, and its elite Radwan forces have attempted incursions into northern Israel, sources in Israel told CNN. Two Israeli soldiers were killed and at least 14 were injured in southern Lebanon, according to the IDF.
Israel significantly weakened Hezbollah during the 13-month conflict that began after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7 – a war that Hezbollah joined the next day, opening a second front from Lebanon.
But at the time of the 2024 ceasefire, the IDF estimated that Hezbollah still maintained up to a third of its pre-war missile arsenal. “Whether it’s 30% or 10%, it’s still enough to pose a serious threat to civilians in the north,” an Israeli military official told CNN.
During the initial ceasefire arrangements, according to the military official, Hezbollah moved most of its forces and assets north of the Litani River, but still maintains capabilities in southern Lebanon – both in personnel and weapons. These include precision weapons capable of hitting targets within a range of 8-10 kilometers and anti-tank missiles, as well as an active drone program, he told CNN an Israeli source with knowledge of the strategic assessments.
Since the 2024 ceasefire, Israel has conducted near-daily attacks on Hezbollah personnel and infrastructure across southern Lebanon, accusing them of trying to rearm and rebuild.
In recent months, Israel’s leadership has concluded that Hezbollah’s military rehabilitation is progressing faster than the IDF’s disruption efforts, according to two Israeli sources. IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir framed the campaign in Lebanon as an “opportunity.”
“Israel wants to finish the job in Lebanon,” a senior Israeli official told CNN.
Israel’s position is that Lebanon’s government – and its armed forces – do not have the capacity to confront Hezbollah. When the Lebanese army announced in January 2025 that it had achieved operational control south of the Litani River, Israel dismissed this as “far from sufficient.”
Days after declaring Hezbollah’s military activity illegal, the Lebanese president said Hezbollah was working “in furtherance of the Iranian regime’s calculations.” He called for direct negotiations with Israel to achieve a “final cessation of hostilities.”
But Israeli officials see little prospect for a lasting agreement without significant military pressure.
Assaf Orion, a retired brigadier general and international fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “The Lebanese government has called for negotiations, but Israel considers current conditions unacceptable, and the current government is unlikely to agree to end the conflict without a significant military achievement.” Orion says Hezbollah is reviving its resistance narrative while the Lebanese government advocates diplomacy.
“You have to remember who has the weapons,” Orion told CNN.
Israel’s expanding campaign against Hezbollah has two stated goals: to weaken and degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and to strengthen Israel’s northern border.
Israeli sources say the campaign in Lebanon reflects a broader recalibration of Israeli strategic doctrine since October 2023: Israel believes it needs to establish a strong military defense to protect civilians from the Iranian proxy on its borders. In October 2023, Israel was forced to evacuate more than 60,000 residents from near the border, a measure the country promises it will not have to take again. The buffer areas that Israel has created or expanded – drawing new lines in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria – reflect this logic.
This security approach aligns with the expansionist ambitions of Israel’s ultra-right coalition government
Likud lawmaker Amit Halevi said last week that the Litani River, about nine kilometers south of Lebanon, “must become the new northern Yellow Line,” referring to the line to which Israel withdrew in Gaza. Israeli military officials publicly maintain that current operations are limited and targeted, but political pressure to expand the buffer area in the long term is real.
Israel believes Hezbollah is at one of its weakest points ever, with its flow of money and weapons from Iran significantly disrupted and many Lebanese no longer seeing it as their defender. “Given the window of opportunity created when Hezbollah chose to start a war, we must use this moment to finish what we did not complete previously,” said an Israeli military official.
For now, Iran remains Israel’s top priority. But when the conflict on that front ends — possibly at the direction of U.S. President Donald Trump — Israel is likely to shift its attention entirely to Lebanon, Orion said. Israel’s air force, currently occupied with Iran, would be free to cover a ground operation against Hezbollah,” said Orion.
“The Iranian front will not remain open forever, and Israel can manage a few more weeks of limited engagement with Hezbollah before shifting to an all-out offensive,” he said.
