Even the American president Donald Trump He called it “probably the biggest surprise” of the war. The wave of continued attacks against the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) It is something unprecedented. Since the start of the joint Israeli-US offensive, all countries on the Arabian Peninsula, except Yemen and Syria, have been hit by Iranian drones. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq and Jordan have been targets of Tehran’s vengeful violence. Many of these countries have defended their right to respond to these attacks, but, beyond protecting themselves and neutralizing the Iranian projectiles that reach their airspace, the Gulf monarchies continue to advocate for diplomacy.
The surprise comes, because recently there had been a rapprochement between these countries with Iran. “In recent years, these Arab states have adopted a policy of diplomacy, basically rapprochement with Iran, considering that they could achieve their objectives more successfully through dialoguerather than having no ties and supporting hardline American policies,” says Michael Wahid Hannadirector of the US program of the International Crisis Group, to this newspaper. “Certainly, if the result of all this is that the Iranians attack them, even though they are not necessarily directly involved in this fight, this will affect the future of those relations,” the analyst adds.
Continued bombings
think about him tomorrow It is difficult for these conservative monarchies, while they continue to be subjected to daily Iranian attacks. The cutting-edge air defense and siren systems have avoided a high number of victims. In Kuwaitsix people have died and dozens have been injured, the same as in Bahrainwhere two people have lost their lives. In the United Arab Emiratesanother six people have died and 131 have been injured. In Omanthere have been three deaths and five injuries, and in Saudi Arabiatwo dead and a dozen injured. The only country that has not recorded fatalities has been Qataralthough there are 16 people who have been injured.
Beyond the impact that Iranian aggression has had on human lives in these Persian Gulf countries, the damage in key infrastructureslike airports, ports or refinerieswill have consequences on them. The economic repercussions For monarchies they can already be intuited. “For years, the Gulf Cooperation Council states presented themselves as havens of stability and opportunity for talent and capital, in contrast to a regional context of political conflict and economic stagnation,” writes Andrew Leberthe researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “However interested this narrative may be, it will be harder to hold amidst scenes of burning hotels and panic over closed airports,” he adds.
Close relationship with Trump
The Gulf monarchies were aware of the risks that a regional escalation could pose for their countries. Therefore, they tried to advocate for diplomacy beforehand. Oman became the main mediator between Tehran and Washington during the conversations that the latter dynamited by launching the joint operation with Israel against the Persian country. These conservative monarchs joined the Peace Board promoted by Trump and, previously, Qatar took a prominent role in mediating the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. From the beginning of his second term, the American president demonstrated his interest in maintaining good relations with these countries. His first trip as president last year he went to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Emirateswhere he met with each of their leaders. In Riyadh, he attended the GCC summit.
Now, this closeness with Washington has been its condemnation at the most critical moment in the Middle East in recent decades, and this relationship that, in turn, has proven to be very unevencan also be dangerous. “The damage that Iran is willing and able to cause to these nations, and the lack of prudence of the US Administrationcould influence the Arab States’ perspective on their fundamental relationship with their security providerUnited States,” says Hanna. “If your security provider is the source of its instabilityit may not be a good deal” for these Persian Gulf countries, he points out from Washington. “Especially if the war goes wrong and begins to destabilize the regionthe countries of the region will have to reflect on the usefulness of this relationship with the United States,” he concludes.
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