ANALYSIS || The United States Navy is one of the most powerful on the planet. With a fleet of eleven aircraft carriers, 66 submarines and 83 destroyers, it has a naval capacity that far surpasses that of any European ally. Still, Donald Trump is demanding help from allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — and has threatened anyone who doesn’t help
“Trump is an expert in carrying out diversionary maneuvers” – and this demand made to his allies is yet another of these maneuvers, points out Major General Agostinho Costa. The CNN Portugal commentator considers that, in this case, it is not a question of “lack of military resources” – it is a “communications maneuver” to “pass the blame” and share responsibility in a war that is not going as expected.
Almost three weeks after the start of the conflict with Iran, several of the strategic objectives remain far from being achieved: destruction of the Iranian nuclear program, weakening of Tehran’s Navy, neutralization of anti-aircraft defenses and even the hypothesis – never officially assumed but often mentioned behind the scenes – of provoking a regime change. None of this was achieved decisively. “Things are not going well”, points out Miguel Baumgartner.
In this context, the presence of some European frigates in the Gulf may seem irrelevant from a military point of view, but it would have enormous political weight. The presence of French, British, German or Italian ships would allow Washington to present the confrontation not as a war by the United States – or by Israel – but as an international response to a global threat – the so-called “evil empire”, almost as if repeating the war that George W. Bush launched in 2003 against Iraq. It was not the “evil empire”, but the “axis of evil”, to which Iran also belonged. This time, Europe followed, but now it seems not so clear.
“Donald Trump is not worried about the military, he doesn’t want NATO forces. He wants these countries to publicly say ‘we are on the side of the United States because the United States is being attacked. Our way of life is being attacked. Look at the economic problem that Iran is creating and, therefore, we are all going to help the world in the name of economic stability because the problem is Iran'”, argues the International Relations specialist.
This political dimension becomes even more evident in the way the US president has spoken to his allies. By stating that he will “remember” who to help or not, Trump has faced NATO partners with a choice: align with the North American position or risk consequences for their strategic relationship. For Miguel Baumgartner, this is a negotiation style very characteristic of the country’s leader. “He looks like a typical bully. One who, when he doesn’t get what he wants, increases the pressure and makes threats.”
However, until then, it seems that the threats have not been heard on European soil. Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and Greece are some of the countries that have already guaranteed that they will not give in to North American intimidation. The Portuguese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paulo Rangel, also stated this Monday that “Portugal is not and will not be involved in the conflict”, ruling out the hypothesis of any “deployment of military assets to the region and especially to the Strait of Hormuz”.
Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2025/Getty Images)
In Agostinho Costa’s opinion, Donald Trump is “desperate” and “lost”: “The war didn’t go for him as he thought it would because perhaps Israel or its military leaders sold him an idea that isn’t happening and he now needs to share responsibilities.”
Firstly, because the very idea of opening the strait by force is, to say the least, “highly problematic”, as geography clearly plays in Tehran’s favor, explains the major general. Drones, coastal missiles, sea mines, fast vessels and even mini-submarines are part of the Iranian arsenal available to operate in that narrow area of sea. In practice, he explains, this means that any attempt to guarantee navigation will always have high costs and considerable risks: “Any minimally informed person understands that opening the strait by force is not viable in terms of what would be acceptable.
The consequence is that the North American president is losing support, “notably at the base of the MAGA group”, considers Miguel Baumgartner. “Inflation is something that in America is destructive for any government and right now we have the American economy in trouble, the increase in the price of oil and the increase in the price of life.” Furthermore, in November, Donald Trump’s popularity will be put to the test in the mid-term elections.
“He needs to tell the American population ‘look, you see, it’s not just my war, look at the Germans, look at the English, look at the French, look at the Italians, look at the Portuguese, they are also there trying to defend the Strait of Hormuz’.”
