It was always an option. In recent years, when under threats, Iran had given clues that one of the actions it would take if attacked would be to completely close the Strait of Hormuz, through which it passes near the 20% of the world’s oil.
In the current war, both things have happened. Iran has been attacked and has closed the strait, although only partially. Tehran It allows the passage of a handful of oil tankers, including its own, obviously, and those of its friendly or allied countries or those that have shown themselves against the war. Boats Chinese, Indians, Pakistanis and Russians They have been able to navigate. The others, if they do so, do so at their own risk, with an Iran that has fired at at least 16 boats in the last two weeks in the strait and the Persian Gulf.
The American president, Donald Trumphas assured that he wants to force the opening of the route, and has demanded help from the I’LL TAKE and other world powers that, for the moment, have dragged their feet: the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea and included Spain have said, in different ways, that they will not participate in the opening of Hormuz by force.
At first glance it would seem like a simple mission. Iran has lost a huge part of its naval fleet in this war, decimated by constant bombing by American and Israeli aircraft for two weeks.
But the Islamic Republic It has a great asset, an ace up its sleeve that allows it to control the Strait of Hormuz: the fragility, fear and possible overreaction of the markets, and how cheap its operations can be.
Low cost
“If the war drags on for weeks, [EEUU y sus aliados] They must design some type of system that allows the escort and transit of the oil tankers. The world needs crude oil to flow from the Gulf, and there already appear to be plans to establish protective measures“, he wrote in recent days Kevin Rowlandseditor of the military magazine RUSI Journal from the United Kingdom.
The problem, however, is that Iran only needs one attack with a maritime droneor the impact of one of their unmanned kamikaze planes Shahed-136 to stop all traffic and make insurance companies decide not to run the risk of crossing Hormuz and being forced to cover million-dollar expenses.
The math works on the Iranian side. A Shahed-136 drone barely costs $20,000and according to international studies, the Islamic Republic is capable of producing several tens of thousands a month. The impact against an oil tanker can cause million-dollar environmental costs, in addition to the cost that a cargo ship escort operation may already have.
“The solution to price increases [de los combustibles] it has to be let this war end. Stop this war and let negotiation and dialogue prevail. Spain is de-escalating. You don’t have to do anything that adds even more tension. The purely military solution is never really a solution,” the Spanish Foreign Minister declared this Monday, Jose Manuel Albares.
Subscribe to continue reading
