PT and senator have 40% in the 1st scenario; variations keep the dispute fierce in the State
The survey, released this Tuesday (17 March 2026), shows a technical tie between the president (PT) and the senator (PL-RJ) in voting intentions for the Presidency of the Republic in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Here is the survey (PDF – 2 MB).
In the 1st stimulated scenario, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro appear tied with 40% of voting intentions. (PSD) records 9%, followed by (Novo), with 3%, Renan Santos (Missão), with 2%, and Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy), with 1%. Undecided respondents account for 2%, and whites and null respondents account for 3%.
Alternative scenarios
In the 2nd scenario, Lula appears with 39%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro, with 36%. The governor of Rio Grande do Sul, (PSD), has 16%. Romeu Zema registers 2%, Renan Santos, 1%, and Aldo Rebelo, 1%. Undecided respondents account for 2%, and whites and null respondents account for 3%.
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In a 3rd scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 42%, while Lula has 40%. (PSD) appears with 4%, followed by Romeu Zema, with 3%, Renan Santos, with 2%, and Aldo Rebelo, with 1%. Undecided people make up 4%, and whites and nulls make up 4%.
Rejection of candidates
The survey also measured rejection of the main names. Lula leads in this regard, with 50% of those interviewed saying they would not vote for him. Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 44%, followed by Eduardo Leite, with 37%.
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Following are Ronaldo Caiado, with 31%, Aldo Rebelo, with 30%, Ratinho Junior, with 29%, and Romeu Zema, with 27%. Renan Santos records 25%.
Another 3% said they did not know or did not have an opinion, and 2% said they could vote for everyone.
Methodology
The research was carried out by Real Time Big Data from March 14 to 16, 2026. 1,500 people were interviewed in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. The confidence level is 95%, and the margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus.
The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under code: BR-04665/2026. According to the company, the study cost R$60,000 and was paid for with its own resources.
