The combination of rising diesel prices and the threat of truck drivers’ strikes once again puts pressure on the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) government at a sensitive moment in the electoral cycle. With the price of fuel at the center of the debate, the issue gains not only economic but also political weight, with the potential to influence the perception of the electorate on the eve of the 2026 elections.
The recent escalation is linked to the spike in international oil prices, driven by the war in Iran. In Brazil, the movement has already led to adjustments in refineries and frustrated part of the effect of the measures adopted by the government, such as the zeroing of PIS/Cofins and the granting of subsidies to diesel.
The impact of diesel goes beyond the transport sector. Fuel is a key input for logistics and, when it becomes more expensive, it puts pressure on freight, food and services. This chain effect tends to reach the consumer quickly and, historically, translates into political wear and tear for the government on duty.
In the current scenario, the risk is amplified by the mobilization of truck drivers, who are already discussing a national strike. The category argues that the increase promoted by Petrobras nullified the relief promised by the federal package, reinforcing the perception of the measures’ ineffectiveness.
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Recent history serves as a warning. During the crisis caused by the truck drivers’ strike in 2018, the Michel Temer government suffered a sharp deterioration in popular opinion. After the strike, Datafolha surveys showed approval at around 3% and disapproval above 82%, amid shortages and widespread price increases.
Although the current context is different, the episode highlights the potential impact of crises involving fuel and logistics on the government’s image.
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For Lula, the challenge goes beyond economic management. The opposition tends to explore the issue as a symbol of failure in the conduct of price policy, especially in a scenario of polarization with the Bolsonarist camp.
The presence of a competitive name from this group, such as senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), reinforces the political weight of the issue. With fierce disputes in recent polls, movements that directly affect the cost of living can have an immediate effect on electoral dynamics.
The federal government has sought to share the burden of the increase with States, Petrobras and agents in the distribution chain. Still, from the voter’s point of view, accountability tends to focus on those who occupy the Planalto.
This distance between technical explanation and practical perception — expressed in the price at the pump — tends to make it difficult to construct a narrative favorable to the government.
Truck drivers at the center of pressure
The category maintains relevant mobilization capacity and has demonstrated, at other times, influence in the political debate. A possible shutdown increases the risk of shortages, puts pressure on inflation and could accelerate the wear and tear of federal management.
Furthermore, there is a direct impact on a group that played an active role in recent electoral cycles and that can reinforce the opposing camp.
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The political impact of the episode will depend on the evolution of three factors: the trajectory of the international oil price, the government’s ability to contain or avoid the strike and the effectiveness of measures to reduce the cost to the consumer.
If the crisis prolongs, it tends to put pressure on Lula’s approval and influence the electoral environment. If contained quickly, the effect may be limited — but it still reinforces the central role of fuels as a key variable in the 2026 race.
