Gavriil Grigorov / Sputnik
Or North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
Analysts believe that Trump is not willing to abandon his interventionist stance. Nuclear weapons become more fundamental to maintaining the North Korean regime.
The developments in the war in Iran have been interpreted by analysts as a sign that US President Donald Trump is not willing to abandon his interventionist stance. The death of former Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, preceded by the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, raised alarms about how far this movement could go, and whether American interest could also extend to Kim Jong-un’s North Korea.
Although there are parallels between Iran and North Korea, both isolated and heavily sanctioned by the West, there are a crucial difference in the relationship between the two countries and the USA: Pyongyang has nuclear weapons. Preventing its development was precisely the White House’s justification for bombing Iran.
But will this be enough for Kim Jong-un to remain safe from American pressure? For Jeongmin Kim, director of consultancy Korea Risk Group, North Korea tries to maintain a low profile at this moment, far from the frenzy of speech about denuclearization that previously put pressure on its foreign policy and placed the country on the list of US priorities.
“There are several reasons why North Korea should be very careful in how it approaches this issue. The North Korean nuclear arsenal is reportedly much more developed [do que o do Irão]”he stated.
“But still, what happened in Iran was that during what they believed was a negotiation with the Trump administration, the attack happened. From North Korea’s perspective, that’s a scenario they really don’t want to see happen to them.”
One of the most valuable lessons of recent events is that Maintaining nuclear weapons is essential for the survival of the regime led by Kim Jong-un. Pyongyang can use the threat of its nuclear arsenal, combined with advances in ballistic missile technology, both as an instrument of pressure in negotiations and to ensure that the US would have to risk nuclear war to overthrow the regime.
Denuclearization drops from the list of priorities
During the presidency of former American President Barack Obama, the United States maintained what it called “strategic patience” regarding the North Korean nuclear program.
The first Trump administration tried to act on the issue more incisively. The two leaders met in Singapore, in June 2018, for an unprecedented summit, after months of hostile rhetoric — the American even called Kim a “rocket man on a suicide mission”.
The meeting resulted in a non-binding declaration from Pyongyang committing to “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula. A year later, however, the proposal’s progress had already failed. During Joe Biden’s presidency, North Korea officially took a backseat in Washington’s foreign policy.
“Ironically, although the North Korea dossier has lost priority for both the US and South Korea, their arsenal has been greatly strengthened, almost exponentially, because now they have solid fuel, liquid fuel and ballistic missiles that can reach Japan“, says researcher Jeongmin Kim.
North Korea itself says it is capable of reaching even the continental United States. Analysts agree, however, that if Trump decides to resort to more robust tactics to denuclearize North Korea, Kim will seek help from his two most powerful allies: Russia and China.
However, the two countries refrained from entering the Iranian conflict and exerted little pressure against Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela.
“It’s something that North Korean leaders observe: although we have a clause and a mutual defense treaty with Russia and China, they will not be able to fully defend us when something like this happens”, assesses the expert.
Without the certainty of support from its only allies, denuclearization seems a distant alternative for North Korea. In September, the country stated that its position as a nuclear weapons state is irreversible and that American comments on the issue are “anachronistic”.
“We can say goodbye to any remaining hope that Pyongyang would give up its nuclear weapons, as North Korea simply will not participate in any negotiations on anything“, assesses Andrei Lankov, professor of History and International Relations at Kookmin University, in Seoul. “The attacks on Iran are the final nail in that coffin.”
South Korea also under pressure
Furthermore, the fact that North Korea may now rely more than ever on its nuclear program to ensure the regime’s survival could have enormous implications for its southern neighbor. This is a problem for Seoul because they also don’t know how trustworthy their main allies are at this point.
“The only blood ally that South Korea has, which is the United States, has become unreliable or, basically, non-traditional”, recalls Jeongmin Kim. In the most recent US National Defense Strategy, South Korea was considered capable of defending itself by its own means, which limits American military support to the country to critical cases.
“From South Korea’s perspective, the risk and threat have increased, but so has the pressure on its own defenses in terms of conventional capabilities.”
A report from 38 North, a think tank specialized in North Korean affairs managed by the Stimson Center, based in Washington, published this Monday, states that North Korea managed to develop its nuclear program by dissuading the United States, in 1994, from attacking its nuclear research facilities thanks to its ability to inflict massive damage on Seoul.
Thus, the threat of Iranian retaliation against attacks on its nuclear program has never been as extreme as Pyongyang’s threat against South Korea.
Will Kim Jong-un overthrow Trump’s plans?
Despite the state of alert regarding the US’s uncertain actions, an attempt to overthrow Kim Jong-un by military means seems further away.
The Korea Crisis Group analyst argues that the action in Iran was justified by the US as support for Israel. If the same logic were used by Washington, an offensive from Seoul would be necessary to legitimize the American presence in a possible intervention against Kim.
“But there is no possibility of South Korea, at least the current government, carrying out an initial attack against North Korea, unless there is a credible and imminent sign of a mass attack by the North Korean side against the South Korean side,” he says.
The 38 North report further stated that another lesson for the Kim regime is that the leadership must be protected and there must be contingency positions ready in case the ruler is eliminated.
Still, North Korea was certainly encouraged by the way Iran has managed to resist a far superior military force so far, says Kim Sang-woo, a former South Korean politician and current board member of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.
“I think Pyongyang is watching the situation evolve and they should be quite satisfied with the results so far,” he says. “Iran managed to put the US in a difficult position. They thought they would finish the job quickly, as they did in Venezuela, but now they appear to be cornered and under domestic and international pressure.”
