Elon Musk, founder of Starlink
February was the first month since 2023 that Kiev regained more territory within Ukraine than it lost. Without access to Starlink, Russian forces are increasingly turning to vulnerable radio transmissions.
In February, Ukrainian forces achieved their biggest internal territorial advances in more than two years after Russian troops lost access to Starlink, the satellite Internet service from SpaceX, a company owned by tycoon Elon Musk.
The change took place last month, with the entry into operation of a new system “white list” which authorizes only approved terminals to connect to the network in Ukraine.
The impact was immediately noticeable on Russia’s ability to coordinate drones, monitor the battlefield in real time and communicate with front-line units, the report said.
According to Ukraine, since then recovered around 390 square kilometers in the south of the countryparticularly in the Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where Russian forces were advancing rapidly.
February was the first month since 2023 that Kiev regained more territory within Ukraine than it lostaccording to sources from the North American newspaper.
Musk’s hand in the war
The Ukrainian forces’ Starlink terminals were authorized, while those being used by the Russians were not. Although Starlink is not officially active in Russia, Moscow forces obtained terminals through intermediaries, who made them arrive from other countries.
Over the past few years, the system has become essential for both sides.
On the Russian side, Starlink was used to see live broadcasts from dronesguide movements on the ground and distribute orders quickly and safely. At command posts, officers monitored real-time images of the battlefield and repositioned assets according to what they observed. The connection allowed for almost instantaneous coordination with drone operators, who then launched waves of attack devices against Ukrainian positions.
When this ability was interrupted, Ukrainian military personnel report having noticed a precipitous drop in the number of Russian drones chasing them after detecting movements on the ground.
In fact, the change came “at a critical moment”. A soldier from the Timur special unit, linked to Ukraine’s military information directorate and identified only by the nom de guerre “Konosh”, tells the WSJ that without Starlink the Russians were “basically forced into Cold War-era communications”.
Oleksiy Serdiuk, commander of the Brotherhood unit, from the same formation, recalls that previously it was enough for the Russians to detect a Ukrainian group or even a single soldier to quickly concentrate all available means on that target; now, the delay between detection and response has increasedcreating windows of opportunity for escape, repositioning or attack.
Serdiuk illustrates the new reality with an episode that occurred in February. Russian forces identified a group of Ukrainian soldiers inside a house and two drones hit the building, but there was no immediate sequence of new attacks, as usual. According to the commander, Russian officers were no longer able to transmit the location to other drone operators so quickly. The delay gave the Ukrainian military enough time to abandon the site and find a new position.
The drop in communications would also have affected other types of assets, such as ground drones and equipment dependent on continuous connection, and the ability to command and control over Russian infantry weakened.
Without Starlink, Russia had to rely much more on radio communications, which Ukraine was able to intercept more easily. A signals intelligence specialist from the Timur unit told the WSJ that the Ukrainians began to hear direct instructions in the broadcasts: anticipated movements, locations to be occupied and routes to be followed, sometimes a day in advance.
In the first weeks after Russia’s loss of Starlink, Ukraine managed to push Russian forces away from the outskirts of the regional capital city of Zaporizhia, which significantly reduced the threat of artillery shelling over the city.
Along the entire front, however, the Russia maintains advantage numerical (estimated at three to one in numbers) and part of the territory recently recovered by Kiev corresponds mainly to open fields and small towns.
E Moscow is adapting. Ukrainian soldiers say the Russians have begun running communications cables between positions, using shorter-range wireless systems and testing Russian and Chinese satellite services. There are also attempts to circumvent the restriction by fraudulently registering Starlink terminals on the white list with the help of Ukrainian citizens — Ukrainian security services have already detained two people as part of these operations.
