With two weeks left for the ultra-conservative Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, the tension in the electoral campaign in Hungary is on an upward spiral. With the polls against, the ultranationalist Government as a great strategic bet. The blockage of the pipeline that transports the oil on which it depends for energy through Ukraine, damaged during an attack in January and which kyiv has not yet reopened, provides political ammunition for the national-populist politician. This Wednesday, Orbán announced the gradual cutting of gas supplies to his eastern neighbor until Russian crude oil flows to Hungary again.
In Orbán’s electoral campaigns there is always a scapegoat, an enemy that threatens national security or the integrity of the ultra-conservative values he espouses. In the successive elections that have consolidated his 16 years of power at the head of Hungary, he has attacked , the philanthropist and always, against Brussels. This year, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has burst onto the country’s billboards.
Since the start of the large-scale Russian invasion that began in February 2022, the Hungarian position has been aligned with the aggressor. Orbán refused to help kyiv militarily or to allow Allied weapons to pass through his country on the way to Ukraine. In Brussels, in recent years he has dedicated himself to torpedoing, blocking and delaying decisions and .
Relations between Hungary and Ukraine had been complicated for some time before the conflict. Now, the confrontation is total. The war even serves to evade Orbán responsibility for economic stagnation or the highest inflation in the EU, which he describes as “war inflation.”
The closure of the Druzhba pipeline after a Russian attack on January 27, according to the Ukrainian Government, is being exploited on both sides of the border. The Druzhba has been supplying Russian crude oil to Central Europe since the 1960s through Ukrainian territory. The supply contract obliges Ukraine to keep the infrastructure active until 2029. Russian natural gas also circulated to Hungary and Slovakia.
kyiv, in a political calculation that could backfire if what it hoped was to put Orbán under the ropes ahead of the elections, has dragged its feet to repair the infrastructure. In retaliation, he approved for Ukraine, even though he had already given his consent after agreeing not to participate in it.
The unprecedented change of position in a decision already taken in the European Council infuriated the partners and the European Commission. But Ukraine’s unwillingness to reopen the flow of oil, on which Slovakia also depends, . The EU is observing the electoral campaign with the utmost care so as not to facilitate any arguments that Fidesz, Orbán’s party, can sell as attempts at interference.
On March 5, Zelensky made a veiled threat to Orbán if he continued to block the loan. The Ukrainian president stated that he would give “that person’s address” to the army so that they could speak with him “in his language.” The European Commission condemned this “type of language” and any “threat against Member States.” The Hungarian leader took the opportunity to publish a video in which he was seen calling his daughter to warn her that in addition to him, other members of the family had been threatened, including her.
Days before, Orbán had ordered the deployment of the army to protect Hungarian energy infrastructure against alleged sabotage plans by Ukraine. Several outlets, including , have reported that Russian secret service agents are advising Hungary on the campaign. According to that newspaper, among the strategies to relaunch Orbán’s campaign was the proposal to represent a false assassination attempt.
European mission on hold
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the president of the European Council, António Costa, . One of the reasons, in addition to satisfying Hungary and thus being able to approve European aid for Ukraine, was also the need to contain the escalation in oil prices caused by the war in Iran: “In the current context of high volatility in the energy market, the resumption of oil transit through the territory of Ukraine takes on greater importance to preserve market stability.” Zelensky promised to reactivate the pipeline and the European Commission offered to finance its repair.
The European Union sent a mission of technicians to Ukraine on March 19 to assess the damage to the pipeline, according to the Reuters agency. Six days later, this mission continues without being able to visit the theoretically damaged facilities, the pumping station in the city of Brodi, in the west of the country. The diary Ukrainska Pravda revealed this Monday that the Ukrainian authorities have not yet given permission to Brussels experts to visit the site. The European Commission did not want to confirm it, while a spokeswoman limited herself to telling the press that day that there was no news about the mission’s work. Budapest on its own sent a delegation to kyiv to inspect the pipeline and assess the damage, knowing that it was not welcome and would be rejected.
The European Commission has not questioned kyiv’s official version according to which a Russian bombing damaged the pumping station. Both Budapest and Moscow claim that it is false and point to previous incidents. ; In 2022, it was leaked that Zelensky had proposed sabotage of the Druzhba within Ukrainian territory in that first year of the invasion.
The oil pipeline issue gives wings to the ultranationalist leader’s campaign. And it produces cinematographic images such as the Ukrainian State Savings Bank, which transported 40 million dollars in cash (about 35 million euros) and nine kilos of gold. The arrest of the seven Ukrainian citizens who were transporting and guarding the funds generated a new diplomatic crisis.
This Wednesday, Orbán tries to write a new episode with the announcement of the gas cut. “We are going to gradually stop gas supplies from Hungary to Ukraine and we will store the gas we have left in Hungary,” Orbán declared in a video posted on Facebook. According to data on the website of Hungarian gas pipeline operator FGSZ, cited by Reuters, gas shipments to Ukraine continued on Wednesday morning.
A spokesperson for the kyiv Government has confirmed that gas has continued to flow during this day. “If Prime Minister Orbán finally decides to suspend it, we believe that the only consequence will be to deprive the Hungarian economy and Hungarians of more than 1 billion dollars (864 million euros), which Hungary received, for example, last year,” he declared.
Ukraine has contracted 180 million cubic meters of gas from Hungary, that is, 28% of the total, as reported by a sector source to that agency earlier this month. In February, 200 million cubic meters were contracted, 31% of the total. Orbán and his Slovak counterpart, Robert Fico, have also threatened Zelensky with cutting off electricity exports to Ukraine if the Druzhba is not reopened.
