() and () appear tied in first and second round scenarios tested in the first round of the BTG/Nexus survey for the election for President of the Republic.
The PT member and the son of the former president (PL) each account for 46% of voting intentions in a simulation of a direct clash between the two carried out by the survey. Blanks and nulls make up 7%.
The pre-candidates also lead in the three first-round scenarios tested by the research — with (), () and (PSD).
In the first, considered the most likely, which simulates a dispute including Zema and Caiado, they appear with 4% of intentions each. In this scenario, Lula has 41%, while Flávio has 38%, which constitutes a technical tie within the margin of error.
The survey was conducted by telephone from March 27 to 29 with 2,006 voters. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval. The research is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) under code BR-07875/2026.
In a scenario with Leite in place of Caiado, he scores 4%, and Zema registers 5% of voting intentions. In this first round configuration, Lula and Flávio have 39%, numerically tied.
In the third simulation of the first round for president, without the PSD pre-candidates — neither Caiado nor Leite —, Zema has 6%. Lula goes to 42%, and 39% cite the son of former president Bolsonaro.
These last two scenarios are considered less likely. As shown by Sheetthe governor of Goiás will announce this Monday (30) that it will be this year.
In addition to these, the research tested the names of Renan Santos (Mission) and Aldo Rebelo (Christian Democracy). Renan fluctuates from 2% to 3% depending on the first round scenario, and Aldo Rebelo, from 0% to 1%.
Among those who chose a candidate in the first scenario, 69% say that the decision has already been made and will no longer change. Another 30% admit change, and 1% did not respond or did not know how to respond.
In a possible second round between Zema and Lula, the Minas Gerais candidate has 40% against 46% for the PT member. If it were Caiado, it would be 41% compared to the same 46% as the current president. Leite would have 36%, against Lula’s 46%.
Rejection
Of the names tested, Lula and Flávio lead in rejection. 49% would not vote for the PT member at all, while 48% declare the same in relation to Bolsonaro’s son. But they are also the best known: 1% say they don’t know the PT member, and 3% say they don’t know the senator.
Zema (unknown by 37%) and Caiado (unknown by 38%) are rejected by 31%. Milk (of which 39% are unaware) has a 34% rejection rate. Aldo Reb elo and Renan Santos appear with 32% and 30% rejection rates and 53% and 55% ignorance rates, respectively.
Government assessment
Still according to the survey, 44% evaluate President Lula’s government as bad or terrible, while 35% classify it as excellent or good. For 21%, current management is regular.
