The race for governor of São Paulo in 2026 combines the consolidated leadership of Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) with signs of vulnerability in segments that usually influence the final result. The Atlas/Estadão survey, released this Monday (3) indicates the governor ahead of Fernando Haddad (PT), but with relevant losses in specific groups of the electorate.
In the first round scenario with support from President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) for the former minister, Tarcísio records 49.1% of voting intentions, against 42.6% for Haddad. The difference puts the current governor close to a direct victory, but in a competitive environment, as candidates associated with the federal government maintain a similar level of performance.
Tarcísio’s advantage is anchored in a broader and more distributed base, especially among men and those in the lower income brackets. Among male voters, he opens a consistent margin over Haddad, while among women there is balance, which reduces the gap in the aggregate.
Reading by age indicates a fragmented scenario. Haddad leads among young people aged 16 to 24 and also among voters aged 60 and over, two groups with different participation patterns, but potential for influence at decisive moments in the campaign. Tarcísio, in turn, concentrates strength in the intermediate ages, with emphasis on the 45 to 59 year old group, where he registers his greatest advantage.
The income and education level reinforces the division of the electorate. The governor maintains a stronger performance among those earning up to R$10,000 per month and among voters with a lower level of education. Haddad appears ahead among the richest and most educated, which suggests a more restricted electorate, but with a greater capacity for political engagement and influence in urban environments.
Religious segmentation increases the asymmetry. Tarcísio has a significant advantage among evangelicals, while Haddad remains more competitive in less religious niches and in the capital. This pattern helps explain regional performance. The PT leader only leads in the city of São Paulo, while the governor dominates the interior, where he builds his main margin.
Continues after advertising
The presence of Kim Kataguiri on the scene also changes the dynamics between the younger people. With 23.7% in this group, he reduces Tarcísio’s growth space and fragments the right-wing vote into a strategic segment.
The general design indicates that Tarcísio starts from a favorable position, supported by territorial capillarity and a broader popular base. Haddad, on the other hand, concentrates support in specific segments that tend to be more politically mobilized.
The evolution of the dispute will depend on the ability of each campaign to expand beyond its current cores, especially in a scenario in which the aggregate margin does not eliminate the risk of a second round.
The AtlasIntel survey interviewed 2,254 people between March 24th and 27th. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number SP-00899/2026.
