In the absence of political news other than a police case, the president at least received some attention from the public, at least from those who care a little about politics. It was very little, say those who measure popular interests on the networks.
But what role can Caiado have in 2026? The . He could be a candidate to drop to 1% or make a bigger appearance — when people pay attention to the election, well after the middle of the year. Your campaign will have to deal with unavoidable situations: 1) The bulk of the votes that can swing are on the right and the extreme right; 2) He will not have the support of the large majority of his party; 3) To alleviate such limitations, Caiado would have to become a star of digital politics, pushed by experienced activists and connected with the moods and odors of this environment — that shouldn’t happen, right.
Caiado was once at the forefront, so to speak, in a sarcastic way. mounted on a white horse, he was from the fierce right when that wasn’t fashionable — the opposite. What will you say to the public who wants something new? Would you have what to say to those who would prefer not to have to vote for Luiz Inácio da Silva or ()?
In short, Caiado will have no chance of growing beyond the dwarf candidacy if he doesn’t hit Bolsonaro Jr. hard — it’s a remaining hypothesis, not a prediction. How can we reconcile this imperative with the attempt to please Bolsonaristas, saying that, if elected, he will amnesty the rest of the coup group? Will the “neither-nor” voter, neither Lula nor Bolsonaro Jr., accept Caiado’s coup comradeship?
At this point in the election year, voters tend not to be thinking much about the issue. They have more to do with their lives, they don’t really know who the youngest pre-candidates are, they haven’t seen them in viral videos, even less on TV; they did not receive torrents of messages on their cell phones. They may change their mind when they see an unfamiliar face or style or show.
That said, judging by the March polls, at least a quarter of the electorate say they are convinced Lula supporters, or something like that, a quarter say they are also convinced Bolsonaro supporters. Although the voter is not under arrest, it is unlikely that Caiado will be able to turn over many convinced Lulista votes or even win over voters “” in 2022. Speaking of which, there will not be a candidacy like that of Lula’s former Minister of Planning 3. , as he will have no allies other than his usual traveling companions, as was predicted, especially because he snubbed the center. On the other side, there will be an angry right, a hard and anti-system right, like , and the extreme right. The rest is “nothing and nures of neris of paltry drains and chunks of necas”, to quote the poet Haroldo de Campos (1929-2003), unfortunate to be brought into this conversation.
Caiado will not have support from his party in the Northeast, apart from Rio Grande do Norte, nor in Pará, Amazonas, Mato Grosso or Rio de Janeiro. In Minas Gerais there is confusion, but nothing much will come of it for Caiado, just as in Rio Grande do Sul, Caiado has Goiás and Paraná and, look, São Paulo.
If he doesn’t want to be an extra, stage assistant or stepladder in Bolsonaro Jr.’s show, Caiado would have to hit Flávio hard and refresh his memory about the militia candidate. Are you going?
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