After more than a month of war, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Donald Trump appears willing to leave the problem in the hands of his allies. According to experts interviewed by CNN Portugal, Europe can only “hope” that the “smokescreen” passes because “ending the war with the strait closed is something that cannot be interpreted as a successful military operation” and Trump may not be willing to take that risk
A day after admitting that his “favorite thing” would be “taking Iran’s oil,” Donald Trump appears to be preparing to end the conflict with Tehran, even without guarantees that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.
A scenario that also does not seem to worry the American president, taking into account that, according to him, the USA has oil “in abundance” and is even ready to sell it “to all those countries that cannot obtain fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom”.
“Buy from the USA, we have it in abundance”, he wrote on his social network, Truth Social, encouraging allies to “gain some belated courage” to intervene in the war and . “Just take it. The US will no longer be there to help you, just as you were not there for us. Iran has essentially been decimated. The difficult part is already done”, he further stressed.
But the possibility remains that “all of these are smoke screens”, created by the American leader to encourage Europe to get involved in the “monumental mess he invented in the Middle East”, warns Francisco Pereira Coutinho, an expert in international law. And it may be doing this, applying pressure on the allies to conduct a military intervention in that strategic passage, trying to “open the strait by force”.
For the CNN Portugal commentator, Donald Trump is trying to share the responsibilities of the conflict with Europe while assuming that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz only has an impact on the old continent and Asia. By doing so, he says, “he is trying to make us discuss a reality that does not exist”, at a time when the increase in fuel prices is widespread and is rising “everywhere, including in the United States”.
“Even if Trump leaves [do conflito]the strait is most likely to remain closed for some time and this will also have impacts on the United States. This definitely doesn’t adhere to reality for him to simply be saying: ‘I’ve already done my part, now you go and do yours’”, he reinforced.
Furthermore, a US withdrawal at this time “would make its allies in the region furious”, recalls Francisco Pereira Coutinho, recognizing that the closure of the route affects Europeans, but is particularly problematic for Asian countries and Gulf countries, which “will not export oil without paying Iran”.
In the analysis of Lieutenant General Rafael Martins, a military expert at CNN Portugal, this is nothing more than another attempt by Donald Trump to “send Europe into a hornet’s nest that Europe did not create”, through what “may just be a pressure argument”.
“At the moment, Europe has to be very calm, wait until the 6th and see if it is all a negotiating ‘bluff’, or if it is a concentration of more weapons and more forces for larger operations”, explains Rafael Martins, noting that a US withdrawal from the conflict would be “irresponsible”, especially “without leaving an open door for negotiation”.
According to Francisco Pereira Coutinho, there is yet another reading to be made of Donald Trump’s speech – one that falls within the context of the upcoming elections. “He is trying to use a narrative to say that he did what he could and that it was all a great success”, he points out, “because he feels pressured, seeing the price of oil rise, having an impact on the world and American economy and elections are coming”.
The point, the commentator highlights, is that “ending the war with the strait closed is something that cannot be interpreted as a successful military operation” and the Iranians “know that”.
“If the US leaves and Iran keeps the strait closed, this will have an impact on the United States and everyone will point the finger at the Americans as responsible for the crisis”, he highlights, arguing that in this way Tehran “has no incentive to free the route immediately”.
There is an advantage for Iran in reopening Hormuz
In turn, Rafael Martins highlights the possible payment of a toll to navigate through the strategic passage as the main advantage of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to Iran. This at a time when a large part of Iranian infrastructure has been affected by joint attacks by the US and Israel.
“Iran will be extremely weakened at the end of this war, it will need money to rebuild itself and to rehabilitate itself in the infrastructure that is already destroyed and in those that are yet to be destroyed.”
The source of income that comes from gas and oil exports, “if it actually remains operational and if the US does not put an end to it”, may not be enough, considers the military expert.
Despite a “high climate of tension”, the lieutenant general remains optimistic about negotiations between the Iranian regime and the Europeans, who “were not so offensive”.
“In the end, I think there will be a certain pragmatism to move to the next phase, a phase in which Iran adapts to a new condition. Because if it fails to do so, it will be really bad for its neighbors, because Saudi Arabia and all the countries on the other side of the Gulf, will not be on good terms with Iran and will always see an emerging threat there.”
If, on the other hand, Iran remains focused on the USA, it may not be so difficult to keep the strait closed, ponders Francisco Pereira Coutinho. Even after Donald Trump claimed that he eliminated the Iranian Navy and Air Force, the expert points out that the country still has drones and that “is enough to attack three or four ships and no one passes without authorization”.
As some European countries become less receptive to the instrumentalization of their territory to aid US war efforts, both experts are in agreement on the role Europe is willing to take in the conflict: discussion through diplomatic channels.
“Europe does not want to go. It does not want, in a bellicose way, to advance with air and naval means, which is the most effective for now in the initial phase, and expose itself to a reality for which it is not prepared, having another active front, which is an eastern front in Ukraine that has yet to be resolved”, indicates Rafael Martins, adding that the Europeans do not seem to be willing to “put out a fire that Donald Trump himself started”.
And even if the hypothesis were viable for Europe, warns Francisco Pereira Coutinho, sending troops to the Middle East “would be unthinkable”, since “it is only possible to resolve the issue by negotiating with Iran and paying it”.
