About half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact and thousands of single-use attack drones remain in Iran’s arsenal despite daily US and Israeli bombings of military targets over the past five weeks. The information was confirmed to CNN by three sources familiar with the most recent US intelligence assessments.
“They are still fully prepared to cause absolute chaos throughout the region,” one of the sources said of Iran.
The total U.S. intelligence assessment could include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those buried underground after attacks but not destroyed.
Thousands of Iranian drones still exist — about 50% of the country’s drone capacity — according to two of the sources.
Intelligence, compiled in recent days, also showed that a large percentage of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles remain intact. This is consistent with the US not focusing its air campaign on coastal military assets, although it did attack ships. These missiles are a key capability that allows Iran to threaten the .
The intelligence offers a more balanced picture of Iran’s ongoing capabilities compared to broad assessments of military victory and government officials.
In an address to the nation on Wednesday night, Trump stated that “Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been drastically reduced, and its weapons factories and rocket launchers are being destroyed, with very few remaining.”
As of Wednesday, the US had struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM).
According to the sources, intelligence showed that American forces degraded Iranian military capabilities, and that key senior leaders were killed in US and Israeli strikes, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s National Security Council.
But in addition to the launchers, Iran maintains a large number of missiles, according to intelligence.
In public comments, the Pentagon highlighted the reduction in the total number of missiles launched by Iran, rather than what was destroyed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a briefing on March 19 that “ballistic missile strikes against our forces are down 90 percent since the start of the conflict, the same with single-use attack drones — think kamikaze drones — also down 90 percent.”
In response to questions about this report, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said that “anonymous sources desperately want to attack President Trump and diminish the incredible work of the United States Armed Forces in achieving the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90%, its navy has been destroyed, two-thirds of its production facilities have been damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming aerial dominance over Iran,” he said.
“The terrorist regime is being militarily decimated and its situation is getting worse every day — its only hope is to make a deal with the Trump administration and definitively abandon its nuclear ambitions. Otherwise, it will be hit with unprecedented intensity,” he concluded.
A government official added that Iran’s ballistic missiles are being destroyed quickly.
Israel, Gulf countries and the US military continue to face off.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell disputed the CNN report, calling it “completely wrong.”
“The United States military has inflicted a series of devastating blows on the Iranian regime,” Parnell said. “We are way ahead of schedule to achieve our military objectives: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal, annihilate its navy, eliminate its terrorist allies, and ensure that Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.”
Israeli military officials estimate a smaller number of operational Iranian launchers, around 20% to 25%. Israel does not include in this count launchers buried or inaccessible in caves and tunnels, according to one of the sources familiar with the American assessment and an Israeli source.
On Wednesday, Trump estimated that US operations would be completed by .
The first source who reviewed the American intelligence assessment said that goal is unrealistic, given how much Iran still has available to use.
“We can keep destroying them, I don’t doubt that, but you are out of touch with reality if you think this will be over in two weeks,” said the source.
Hegseth said this week that Iran’s firepower continues to decline.
“Yes, they will still fire some missiles, but we will intercept them,” he said. “It is worth noting that in the last 24 hours there have been the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will hide underground, but we will find them.”
The ability to hide underground is one of the main reasons the launchers have not been further degraded, two of the sources said. Iran has long hidden its launchers in extensive networks of tunnels and caves — preparing for a conflict like this for decades — making them particularly difficult to target. Two of the sources said Iran has been able to launch and move mobile platforms, making tracking difficult, similar to challenges the US has faced with the Houthis in Yemen, one of Iran’s main allied forces.
The U.S. and Israel have increasingly targeted tunnel entrances to these underground facilities and equipment used to re-access them, such as excavators and other heavy machinery, said Annika Ganzeveld, Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project.
The recent assessment also comes as the US struggles to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, privately acknowledging that it cannot guarantee the reopening of the crucial shipping lane before the end of the war. Coastal cruise missile capabilities may be largely intact because they were not a focus of the American military campaign, said the first source, who prioritized targets capable of hitting allies in the region. These capacities were also likely moved underground, making them difficult to locate.
And although the Iranian navy has been largely destroyed, according to the first source, the separate naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still maintain about half their capacity. The second source stated that the IRGC still possesses “hundreds, if not thousands, of small vessels and unmanned surface vehicles.”
As of Wednesday, CENTCOM publicly reported that more than 155 Iranian vessels had been damaged or destroyed. However, Ganzeveld said it is unclear which naval force the US is referring to in these statements.
According to her, the IRGC Navy is primarily responsible for threatening maritime transport in the Strait of Hormuz.
“There are still remaining elements — the allies as well as the drones — and Iran has recently demonstrated that it still maintains the ability to target shipping in the strait,” Ganzeveld said. “So there are still targets to hit if we want to completely eliminate these abilities.”
