Just over a week after taking place in the United States, where he presented himself as the candidate of a “Bolsonaro 2.0” and asked for international “diplomatic pressure” on the Brazilian elections, Bolsonarism on the networks is experiencing a paradox, since it has never been so mobilized around 2026 and, at the same time, it has never seemed so fragmented from within.
According to data from , which analyzes more than 100,000 public e groups in real time, messages that mention the Bolsonaro family in the last week reveal a scenario marked by internal fractures. Flávio Bolsonaro dominates almost half of the mentions (46.5%), consolidating himself as a central figure on the right. However, 14% of all messages revolve around internal disputes within the , a volume that rivals the 18% dedicated to calls for unity and loyalty to the Bolsonaro project.
The side that defends internal cohesion has reasons for concern. reopened the wound with (PL), calling him a “caricatured version of himself” and accusing him of disrespecting his family. In the monitored groups, around 20% of the messages that mention Nikolas have an aggressive tone, such as the nickname “Iscariot”, used in reference to Judas and as a synonym for traitor, and which is recurrent in the most radical Bolsonarist groups. At the same time, Nikolas blocks the senator’s affiliation with the Minas Gerais PL, even with the approval of the national leadership, concentrating for himself the power to define who enters and who leaves the party in Minas Gerais. The reading in the groups is that Nikolas wants to avoid the growth of autonomous right-wing leaders that could rival his protagonism.
The episode adds to the veiled dispute between and , which gained a new chapter last week. While Carlos reported, after visiting his father, that he was facing “endless bouts of hiccups” and that his health was “deteriorating rapidly”, Michelle publicly contradicted him on Saturday (3), stating that the former president had been “hiccup-free for six days” and was already undergoing physiotherapy. In Palver’s data, the messages that cross the two names mostly deal with this contradiction and the tension over Carlos’ pre-candidacy for the Senate for Santa Catarina, where Michelle even praised her stepson’s political opponents.
Even above these internal disputes, Flávio’s candidacy continues with momentum. About 58% of messages about him have a favorable tone, driven by the speech at CPAC and research that with . Participation in the event generated significant repercussions, with 47% of positive mentions of CPAC in the groups, extolling the denunciation of political persecution and alignment with Trumpism. Even so, a quarter of the mentions were critical, most of them in left-wing groups, questioning the stance of “subservience” to American interests, especially the offer of .
What the data shows is that Bolsonarism is facing a moment of tension. The mobilization machine works, but the energy spent on internal conflicts can be costly and even segregate the group. Nikolas is building his own political project that does not always coincide with the interests of the Bolsonaro family, but he is one of the most skilled in using networks in the right-wing camp. A declared rupture could represent a very important loss for Flávio’s candidacy. If the Bolsonarist right does not resolve its internal issues, it runs the risk of reaching the election without the digital cohesion that marked its campaigns in recent years, which could open space for the growth of a third way.
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