When FIFA defined the 2026 World Cup in North America, the proposal was irresistible. The U.S. was poised to benefit from its extensive supply of existing American soccer megastadiums that could be adapted for soccer, a growing domestic fan base, and a new format that expanded the tournament from 32 to 48 teams. This combination was designed to make it the biggest and most profitable World Cup in the history of the entity that governs world football.
A FIFA and World Trade Organization study published last year predicted the 39-day event would attract 6.5 million fans and generate a total economic impact of $30.5 billion in the US alone, for a spend of just $11.1 billion. A year ago, the outlook for tourism also looked “promising,” according to the report.
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“Visitor arrivals will likely generate billions of dollars in economic activity, benefiting the hospitality, transportation and retail sectors. Hotels in host cities anticipate record occupancy, and local businesses will benefit from increased visitor flows,” the report said.
But with the tournament just over two months away, geopolitical shocks and immigration hurdles in the US are threatening to discourage international visitors and possibly dampen initially optimistic World Cup ambitions.
“You’re seeing a series of headwinds hitting what many thought would be a hallowing and incredibly successful event,” said Mark Conrad, professor of law and ethics at Fordham University’s business school and director of its sports business practice.
Public attendance is now at risk, he told Fortune. More than a month after the US attacked Iran, Brent crude prices remained above the psychological level of $100 per barrel for just over a week and were at $109 per barrel on Friday afternoon.
With Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of all global oil passes, the US and other countries are beginning to go on alert.
U.S. gasoline surpassed the $4 per gallon average last week for the first time since 2022, which could mean fewer people traveling by car to neighboring states to watch a game.
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The price of airline tickets is also rising as jet fuel, which accounts for more than 40% of airline operating costs, has nearly doubled in recent weeks.
The average cost soared 148% for an intercontinental flight, reaching US$414 in mid-March, compared to US$167 at the end of February, according to an analysis by Deutsche Bank.
Other issues can also influence. Even before the war in Iran, 150,000 people in the Netherlands signed a petition in January calling on the Dutch national team to boycott the games because of “aggressive US military intervention” while President Donald Trump threatened to take control of Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark.
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Obstacles for tourists
All this turbulence represents a problem for the biggest sporting event on the planet, according to Conrad. There will be 104 matches in total, most of them in the USA, in 11 cities. Games will also be played in five cities in Canada and Mexico. Still, international fans may have more difficulty attending matches in the US.
The Trump administration has made it difficult or inconvenient for foreigners to visit the US. Some of these policies include a broad travel ban that would prevent fans of ranked teams like Iran, Haiti and the Democratic Republic of Congo from attending games in the US. The three teams have scheduled matches in the country.
Even travelers who are not banned face other obstacles. As part of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the price of the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) doubled, going from $21 to $40 for many European visitors. Europe has 16 teams in the tournament.
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The base price for non-immigrant visas, such as tourist visas, for citizens of countries not eligible for ESTA has risen from US$160 to US$185. And, although not yet being charged, a US$250 “visa integrity fee” would bring the total cost of tourist visas from countries like Mexico and Brazil to US$435 per person.
In addition to the higher fees, visitors from other nations classified as US gaming, including Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast and Senegal, must also pay a deposit of $5,000, $10,000 or $15,000, to be determined at the visa interview.
There is still the question of Iran’s participation. Although Trump said last month that Iranian players should skip the World Cup “for their own lives and safety”, FIFA president Gianni Infantino said this week that Iran’s national team will play in the tournament. It is unclear whether he means he will play in the US as scheduled.
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In addition to the additional costs, concerns about Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which has already arrested tourists with valid visas, may mean football fans simply don’t want to attend, Conrad said. “If I’m from a certain country, I might think twice about going through this and feeling like I’m not welcome,” he said.
But for all the anxiety, short-term rental data tells a rosier story so far. Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, a company that tracks short-term rental bookings, says demand for this type of accommodation during the tournament period, between June and July, is higher than the same period last year in US host cities.
“We expect that in most markets there will basically not be enough supply of short-term rental properties to accommodate all the people who want to stay close to the games,” he said.
In Boston, for example, occupancy for short-term rentals during the group phase in June is already at 47%, compared to 26% in the same period last year. Some property owners near the stadiums have raised prices by more than 100% in anticipation of the World Cup games. Airbnb also offered up to $750 as an incentive for first-time renters.
The increase in bookings may not be limited to just the host cities but spread to surrounding areas.
Lane said that in the Buffalo–Niagara Falls region — an hour’s flight from New Jersey, where games will be played at MetLife Stadium — total demand for June is about 30 percent higher than a year ago, an unusual jump that he said could be tied to trips planned by World Cup visitors while in the U.S.
“It doesn’t appear to be an increase in demand just in these cities [sede]” Lane said. “It looks like this will drive stronger bookings overall this summer.”
Still, there are signs that hotels are not seeing the boost they had hoped for. The publication “The City” reported at the end of last month that hotel reservations in New York for the World Cup dates were 2% below the same period the previous year, when there were no major events scheduled.
The head of New York City’s finances also estimated in a report that, even if the event meets FIFA’s high expectations of generating US$3 billion in economic activity and attracting 1.2 million visitors, the city could still suffer losses due to costs such as policing, according to “The City”.
“Bookings have been weaker than expected,” Sarah Bratko, vice president and policy advisor at the American Hotels & Lodging Association, told the outlet.
While international visitors may not come to the U.S. in droves as expected, domestic tourism could make up for some of that absence, and the event still has the potential to be successful, Conrad said.
“I don’t think it’s going to be a complete disaster by any means,” he said. But, for tourists, “it won’t be so easy for several reasons”.
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