In an immediate rebound after United States President Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, oil prices fell by more than 10%.
Despite the relief at first, the scenario is still one of pragmatism and caution, according to experts interviewed by the CNN Money.
“The market is pragmatic: it gained two more weeks, it’s no more than that. In two weeks, 24 hours before the deadline, the tension begins again and the markets become nervous again”, says former Petrobras CEO Jean Paul Prates to the report.
On Tuesday night (7), – lost almost 13.5%, trading at US$94.54. At the same time, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), the basis for the US market, was around US$99.
The last time Brent oil closed below US$100 was in , according to data from the Refinitiv platform.
The drop could go further, points out Roberto Ardenghy, president of the IBP (Brazilian Institute of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels). However, he emphasizes that everything will depend on how the scenario will evolve in the coming weeks, and that the market will closely monitor any negotiations.
US and Iran agree to temporary ceasefire
Shortly before the Strait of Hormuz was completed, Trump said that .
“Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan, in which I was asked to suspend the deployment of destructive forces into Iran tonight, and provided the Islamic Republic of Iran agrees to the FULL, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend bombings and attacks on Iran for a period of two weeks,” Trump said on Truth Social.
“This will be a bilateral Ceasefire! The reason for this is that we have already met and exceeded all military objectives and are very advanced in a definitive Agreement on long-term PEACE with Iran and PEACE in the Middle East”, he added.
Then Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Aragachi said that during the two weeks, .
“This alignment between the United States and Iran, for the first time in the conflict, should result in an extension of the falls in oil prices […]. We should see a more evident bearish momentum in the market”, points out Bruno Cordeiro, Market Intelligence specialist at StoneX.
“It is worth highlighting that the market should remain attentive over the next 15 days in relation to negotiations between Washington and Tehran. If a definitive agreement is reached, it is very likely that we will see a more accelerated drop in prices. Otherwise, we can probably see prices operating at higher levels, amid expectations of a maintenance of lower flows of ships, vessels and commodities energy sources in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Long-term impact
However, even with the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the impact on those who depend on this oil is expected to last in the medium term. This is because “the oil ship travels at the speed of a bicycle”, according to Prates.
Oil tankers travel long distances to their final destination, and it takes a while for the effect of the opening to resonate with the consumer.
“It’s a time when there’s still no oil, a time of tension, so there are people who think we’re still going to have some emotions because of this structural issue”, ponders Roberto Ardenghy.
“In Asia, there are countries rationing or increasing prices to hold down consumption. So there will be a reduction in oil and fuel consumption in the coming months, because stocks don’t last forever, and the limit will condition tension”, points out the president of IBP.
