The housing crisis is not only having a high social impact, but is also eroding the competitiveness of the Catalan economy. And not only because of the restrictions it imposes on workers, who account for the bulk of job offers. Also due to the “high weight of real estate capital” in Catalonia, which “stands out for its low productivity” and whose proportion of total investment is “far and away” above that in Germany, France, Italy or the United States, according to a report prepared by the Generalitat for the last meeting to which EL PAÍS has had access. “This excess of unproductive real estate investment is a burden on the TFP [productividad total de los factores, un indicador clave que mide la eficiencia con que una economía emplea sus recursos]”explains the document.
The report prepared by the General Directorate of Economic Analysis and Foresight, which addresses ten major economic areas and which was distributed to the members of the council at its February meeting, aspires to be the work guide for that body until June. A package of recommendations should be derived from it that could be published that month, coinciding with the . Following the model of the European Commission, the document suggests institutionalizing the relationship between the publication of this annual review and the health of the economy with the adoption of new economic recommendations. And housing is very present in this preliminary document. Not only for having its own chapter, .
In the last year, some funds have been leaving Barcelona more or less silently. The advertisements on real estate portals of apartments for sale with a tenant included are, in part, a result of this march. In the last week, the president of the Generalitat, , has once again warned investors in the face of complaints that many companies are trying to circumvent the Housing law. “If you have come to speculate, you have made a mistake. It is neither the country, Catalonia, nor the sector, housing, to do so. And we will continue down this path,” warned Illa, who: “Do not come to speculate, do not come to cheat, do not come and say that you will take a building, rehabilitate it and rent it out by rooms. Not this, not here. In Catalonia we do not want that. And we will apply the full weight of the law.”
In fact, real estate capital should be Illa’s main concern, according to the document. Catalonia has lower levels of capital investment than other neighboring countries: it is low in intangible capital, which is highly productive; in public infrastructures, in sources of renewable and hydraulic energy production, in railway maintenance… On the other hand, there is a high weight of real estate investment that, furthermore, is not directed at . “The high returns of the real estate market cause a poor allocation of capital, diverting investments towards less productive assets and limiting the entry of more productive companies into the market, in favor of companies with real estate assets,” the report points out.
Specifically, the document points out that the high returns offered by the brick They channel “large sources of debt” and “divert capital” from sectors that have greater growth potential. Furthermore, it indicates that the high value of real estate assets on the balance sheets of these companies, swollen in the heat of the revaluations of the last decade, may be masking “low operational efficiency” and harming more innovative companies.
The document also indicates that, paradoxically, the high level of capital in the sector is not leading to greater construction of apartments, nor are they affordable. And that contrasts with the “excessive demand” that exists in Catalonia, especially in the Barcelona area and in tourist areas. There, acquiring a home represents an “overload” that causes a “social problem” especially in groups with the lowest incomes and prevents the attraction of talent in the most dynamic regions, slows labor mobility towards areas with better opportunities and reduces investment in human capital and productive consumption.
Until the crisis due to homelessness is resolved, the document indicates two ways to try to mitigate this situation: teleworking and an improvement in infrastructure, although it admits that this last measure may carry the risk of “exporting inflationary pressure to traditionally affordable areas” and extending the problem to more citizens.
The report addresses other deficits in the Catalan economy. One of them is the “limited transformation” of the Catalan energy system compared to the rest of Spain and the EU. “Catalonia’s growth pattern is less sustainable than that of Spain and the EU,” states the document, which recalls that the “boost” of the green economy – lagging behind Spain – can reduce energy costs and improve productivity. The document also explores digitalization and the application of artificial intelligence and concludes that, despite being one of the five territories with the most penetration in Europe for five consecutive years, this transformation “does not generate significant productivity gains.” Among other obstacles, the lack of a sufficient critical mass to attract more companies, the emigration of trained professionals, the fragmentation of the innovation ecosystem or the investment deficit that, on the other hand, does have the brick.
