““God created war so that Americans would learn geography.”
Apocryphal phrase attributed to the American writer Mark Twain (1835-1910).
Last Thursday, April 9, despite the initial joy of the markets at the ceasefire announcement after Trump threatened to destroy Persian civilization the traders or oil traffickers panicked.
The Tehran government decided—in the face of fierce provocation attack launched by Israel in Lebanon with almost 300 dead—keep the Strait of Hormuz.
In the North Sea, Russian, Asian and European refiners paid for crude oil on Thursday Forties —is the name of the largest deposit in the North Sea, 170 kilometers from the Scottish city of Aberdeen—147 dollars/barrel for immediate delivery.
That is, we are talking about physical crude oil market; not three or six month futures. Cash market. These purchases of physical oil are They paid almost 50% more that day than the 97 dollars/barrel that the market set for the international price of Brent crude oil with delivery next June.
Those refineries wanted to secure the crude because the tankers they were waiting for are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. 147 dollars/barrel is a price that was not known since the Great Recession of 2008.
The apocryphal phrase attributed to Mark Twain, about war and geography, has its merits. It is precisely a document released by the Tehran government this week that teaches Americans, and the world, for what geopolitical reasons the campaign Epic Fury became the War of the Strait of Hormuz.
Ekaiser article / EPC
“No power is going to be able to turn around the eternal domination of the Strait of Hormuz. It is not a mere passage or global navigation route. It is a strategic waterway that represents the pulse of the global energy economy and simultaneously a powerful asset for the Islamic Republic of Iran to fundamentally reorder the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and in the world. Iran seeks not only to merely protect and monitor the Strait of Hormuz but to absolutely exercise intelligence and control to in the short term force any adversary to withdraw, negotiate or accept Iran’s terms and, in the long term, make this permanent and inexhaustible control a strategic advantage.
The analysis continues: “This indisputable authority over this blocking point through which 20% of oil shipping passes, seeks regulate traffic, collect tolls, and influence global supply and it is about reconfiguring as part of the dynamics in the region in the axis of resistance of Iran and its allies… No military or diplomatic threat can affect this unalterable reality. Iran with a coastline of 1,600 kilometers in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. This extensive coastline includes numerous islands of strategic value that serve as blockade points. Unlike the Suez Canal or the Panama Canal, The Strait of Hormuz is the only mandatory route for the transportation of crude oil, liquefied gas, and chemical products. path of the Indian Ocean and global markets. There are no viable alternatives to circumvent Iran’s control”.
As proven in the war unleashed by Trump and Netanyahu, what Iran says is not rhetoric. He has applied it. And Trump, by accepting the 10 points of Iran as a “viable plan” to negotiate peaceseems to have realized that it will not be easy to dynamit, as Israel believes, the situation created.
Vice President Vance doesn’t have it easy. Because in Islamabad, where he has begun negotiating with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi—the same one that in Geneva accepted unprecedented conditions of control over the uranium enrichment program—is escorted by those who aborted the pact practically signed on February 26 in Geneva. That is to say: Steve Witkoff, the millionaire friend of Trump and Netanyahu, and Jared KushnerTrump’s son-in-law. And because Trump will try to use Vance, the only one who opposed starting the war in Iran, as a scapegoat.
Yet, USA needs not come back to war. And among other things because the weapons it has used and the one it has provided to Israel has emptied its warehouses.
This Friday, precisely, it was reported that the defense contractor company Lockheed Martin had obtained a contract from the Pentagon worth $4.7 billion for the supply of Patriot interceptors, widely used by the United States and its allies to shoot down Iranian missiles and drones. Especially for Israel, which is experiencing a depletion of its stocks.
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