Allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) minimize the result presented this Saturday (11), which shows the PT member losing advantage over his rivals. The tendency is for a technical tie with Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round and there is already a tie in the 2nd round with the three main opponents (in addition to the PL senator, Caiado and Zema). The government is betting that this is a temporary moment and a possible reversal with economic measures.
In the April survey, there was 46% voting intention compared to 45% in a second round scenario between the two candidates. This is a technical tie, given the survey’s margin of error of two percentage points. In March, the PT member had 46%, while the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro scored 43%.
The assessment of President Lula’s assistants is that the drop in research is not due to Planalto’s error. They cite the , driven by the war in Iran, and the high debt of Brazilian families, which would have prevented gains in popularity with the exemption from Income Tax for those earning up to R$5,000, for example.
Therefore, PT members are betting that measures to contain the rise in fuel and cooking gas, in addition to the FGTS (Service Time Guarantee Fund) to help indebted workers, should have an effect in the short and medium term.
The national president of the PT, , told Folha that the government is also exhausted due to fraud by Master and INSS (National Social Security Institute). According to the leader, the electorate tends to associate this type of scandal with the federal government, despite them involving figures from all political spectrums.
“The survey is a snapshot of the moment, it reflects the growth of anti-system sentiment, mainly due to the allegations of corruption that the country is experiencing. In the eyes of society, if there is corruption, the responsibility lies with the government, the institutions, the President of the Republic is the greatest institutional leader in the country”, said Edinho.
The president of the PT stated that the task “is to make it clear” that Lula is the one who “is sponsoring the investigation of all the allegations” of the PT. “If the allegations are being investigated, it is the president’s merit. And we have to continue defending the legacy of the Lula government, which made the biggest contribution since Brazil’s redemocratization”, he added.
Another PT bet is that, when the campaign begins, Flávio tends to melt down since the senator’s flanks have not been identified, as is the accusation of a crack in his office. They also hope that the senator will not do well in the debates, remembering that he almost fainted in a confrontation with the candidates for Mayor of Rio de Janeiro, in 2016.
In opposition, the atmosphere is celebratory. A more enthusiastic wing of the , states that Flávio is now considered the favorite in the dispute. This group assesses that the government will not be successful in its economic measures and the climate of saturation with the PT administration will last until the election.
“Our work is just beginning. Until October, we still have a long way to go and, God willing, we will free Brazil”, wrote Flávio when sharing Datafolha’s results in the 2nd round scenario against Lula.
The order among Flávio’s allies is to continue exploring errors and pointing out the population’s difficulties, mainly in the area of public security and the economy and, at the same time, reinforcing the pre-candidate’s moderate speech.
In the survey, 48% of those interviewed said they would not vote in any way for the current president, while 46% rejected Bolsonaro’s son outright. In March, Lula had a 46% rejection rate, while Flávio had 45%.
The national president of the PP, , assesses that this election, like the previous one, will be decided by a battle of rejection. He states that Flávio has been successful in containing an expected increase in dissatisfaction with his name, which is natural when a candidate becomes better known.
“What the research proves is that the people do not want a Lula 4 for the simple and increasingly clear reason that there was no Lula 3. The president promised everything, he was elected, time passed and the people think that nothing came. That’s what the research shows”, said Ciro.
Ciro Nogueira summarizes his analysis: “In 2022 people voted for Lula to defeat Bolsonaro, and now they will vote for Flávio to defeat Lula.”
