He was an energetic and talented anti-communist student leader when the Wall fell. He studied at Oxford with a scholarship from George Soros, and upon his return founded Fidesz, a liberal and pro-European party. But he could not win the elections and with the Great Recession he went to the dark side: he carried out a sharp, fierce, brutal turn towards the more radicalized right. In 2010, with Hungary in a deep crisis, he finally came to power. He no longer let go: he began a systematic demolition of democracy and the rule of law that appears highlighted in the manual of the good populist.
He took over the judiciary, colonized independent institutions, took over the media, put his friends in charge of large companies. At 62 years old, he has spent 16 consecutive years in power: no one comes close to those numbers in Europe. In this metamorphosis, Orbán became a fierce anti-European and an archetype of a successful far-right, especially in Eastern Europe. That era is coming to an end.
The Hungarian leader infested the entire State with corruption. He found a vein of gold in anti-migration policies, despite the fact that his country is losing population in spades. And he became the prototype of a populist even beyond the EU: “He is a hero,” Steve Bannon has said of him, spin doctor of Trumpism; “It’s like we were twins,” said Donald Trump himself. Putin and Xi have been less explicit, but have relied on him time and again to strengthen their interests in Europe.
For all this, Orbán’s defeat, if the first results of this Sunday’s elections are confirmed, has a double reading. One: it is a first division setback for the far-right international, which considers him a model of success. And two: it opens a new political cycle in Europe, where the ultras have already suffered several setbacks but none like this one.
Furthermore, everyone is waiting for the French presidential elections of 2027. With these elections between eyebrows, Brussels manages to get rid of a submarine of Trump, Putin and Xi. Orbán has torpedoed the entire European strategy to help Ukraine. It has played at being more of a partner of the US, Russia and China than of the EU. And it has placed every imaginable stone in the way to prevent the Union from moving towards strategic autonomy in defence, in energy, in the economy and in each and every one of the agendas in which Europe has to take a step forward in the midst of the geopolitical revolution that is based on the law of the strongest.
Pro-Russian, pro-Trumpist and pro-Chinese, Orbán has inspired other leaders of the European extreme right, such as the Slovakian Robert Fico or the Czech Andrej Babis. In this campaign he has received the support of Trump, the Italian Giorgia Meloni, the Spanish Santiago Abascal and Alice Weidel, from Alternative for Germany. Right-wing populists on both sides of the Atlantic hold him up as a kind of model. And he has starred in a classic populist campaign; elections that he presented as a kind of plebiscite between war and peace, with the aim of “preserving Hungary as an island of security and tranquility”, with all kinds of post-truths,
For three decades, Orban has reformed the electoral system hundreds of times to give himself an advantage, and in recent months he has accelerated clientelistic policies to secure all types of support. The polls gave him more than 10 points of disadvantage compared to Peter Magyar, a candidate from his inner circle who has based his campaign on fierce accusations of corruption. And the first results are devastating.
Magyar, a textbook conservative or ultra-conservative, has managed to rally the center-right and center-left around him to oust Orbán. Hungary accounts for only 1.1% of European GDP, and less than 2% of its population, but we are talking about: in some way, these elections measure the height of the ultra wave on European soil.
These are, roughlythe consequences of Orbán’s defeat:
Europa. It is a theatrical spectacle to see Orbán enter the headquarters of the European institutions as if it were the Death Star. This modern Darth Vader is head-on against Brussels, which keeps some 15 billion in European funds frozen due to Hungary’s illiberal drift and the lack of spending controls. It is a thorn in the side of immigration policies, in everything related to the judiciary or the rights of minorities. He champions the populist international in Europe, to the point that Orbán himself describes Hungary as an “illiberal democracy”, a defender of traditional Christian family values.
It has continued to buy energy from Russia despite sanctions. He has torpedoed financial and military aid to Ukraine time and time again. He has been repeatedly accused of revealing confidential information to the Kremlin. “If he wins, he will redouble his confrontation with the EU. But if he loses, he will continue to wage war, because barring a colossal defeat, he will still control some institutions. But that defeat could mark the beginning of a very positive cycle in Europe, the first sign that the pendulum is turning and the populist wave is reaching its ceiling, and the possibility of advancing fundamental agendas for which there is a lack of consensus due to positions like those of Hungary,” European sources said last Friday.
Brussels has had to opt for reinforced cooperation and coalitions of volunteers in the face of opposition from Orbán (and his Visegrad partners) in decisive chapters in recent times. The EU has thus circumvented the Hungarian blockade to shield Ukraine and take steps towards strategic autonomy and disengage from US defense and cheap energy from Russia. Without Orbán, all that will be easier: Magyar has promised to reorient Hungary’s European policies.
But maybe it’s not that easy. A survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR, a think tank) reveals that three out of four Hungarians are in favor of the EU; two thirds want closer ties with the Union and are even in favor of joining the euro. “But European partners should not expect a radical turnaround, especially on foreign policy and Ukraine; there is still a big division in society,” says Piotr Buras of the ECFR.
United States, Russia, China. European Commission chief Ursula Von der Leyen’s policy of appeasement with Trump has had poor results in the last year, but Trump has a fervent defender in Orbán (and other populist leaders). The MAGA phenomenon and Trump himself have been in love with it for years. Orbán has financed his think tanks and was an inspiration for Project 2025, which lifted Trump to his second term. And it is even more favorable to ; He has repeatedly torpedoed all of Brussels’ maneuvers against Russia in the middle of the war in Ukraine, has served him with sensitive information on a plate, has bought him oil and has met with him despite the war.
The third vertex of the Hungarian Bermuda triangle is China: Xi Jinping has also concentrated a good part of his investments in the EU in Hungary. A couple of years ago it invested more in that small country, which is its gateway to the European market, than in France, Germany and the United Kingdom combined.
Model to assemble. “Orbán is one of the moral leaders of the world,” Bannon summarizes with that characteristic gaseous chatter of Trumpists. Although he was embedded for years in the European People’s Party, when he was expelled he managed to form a solid group in the European Parliament, the Patriots, and is a model for the Spanish populists of Vox (to whom he has granted million-dollar loans), for the Czechs, for the Slovaks, even for the Germans.
The defeat shows that being touched by Trump’s wand no longer adds up. It is a puncture for the ethnonationalist tide and the so-called , which is beyond 25% in many countries on the continent. “If he is finally overthrown, he will close the door to populism and open the way for a stronger EU,” summarizes Zslyke Csaky, from the Center for European Reform in London, with the French elections on the horizon and the need to grit our teeth in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran.
Countermodel. For the ultras, Orbán is a hero; For liberals, he is the guy who managed to turn a democracy into an autocracy through supposedly democratic measures and with succulent European funds. If his victory is confirmed, in a kind of paradigm of how to beat one of the most successful populists in the world.
One: we need a charismatic, skilled candidate who shines at rallies and on social networks. Two: that leader has to speak as clearly as the ultras; Magyar has been denouncing Orbán’s corruption for two years, and criticism of the moral rot of the regime has attracted part of the undecided, the young, to the less favored regions. Three: more than abstract ideas, Magyar has gone directly to a target, the economy and purchasing power.
Hungary has been practically stagnant for three years, while its neighbors, especially Poland, are going like a shot. Clientism and the embezzlement of European funds, Magyar emphasizes, are a fundamental part of the Hungarian economic anemia. The country has 7.5 million inhabitants and its population has been reduced due to emigration and despite birth policies.
Inflation skyrocketed with covid and the war in Ukraine. The average salary is just over 1,000 euros, the third lowest in the Union, and the per capita income is 75% of the European average. Unemployment is just 5%, but it is at the highest level in 10 years. The public debt is at 75% of GDP, below the European average, but the interest on the debt represents an item equivalent to spending on health and double that on education, two policies that cause great social discontent.
Orbán has experimented with a cocktail of economic policies that includes nationalist industrial policies, an aggressive tax cut for some groups to shore up his electoral chances, cheap energy from Russia and large Chinese investments. It hasn’t worked. Partly because Brussels keeps the aforementioned 15 billion frozen, an enormous amount for such a small economy. Magyar promises reforms, an unlocking of European funds and an end to corruption. Starting this Monday, we will see if Hungary manages to move from muses to theater.
