As US credit risk outlook deteriorated at the beginning of the second quarter of 2026, says the Fitch Ratingsciting the war against Iran and software disruption driven by artificial intelligence as reasons.
In a report published this Monday (20), Fitch states that one, with higher inflation, lower wages, more restrictive financial conditions and a weakening of demand.
“Higher inflation would complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and delay expected interest cuts,” he pointed out.
The agency’s adverse scenario considers, on average, for 2026, leading to a growth of just 1.5% in United States GDParound 0.7 percentage points below the base scenario.
The most intense impact would be seen later, with growth falling to just 0.6% annually in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to 1.8% in the baseline projection published in March.
It already has “impacts on corporate credit, private markets and structured finance”.
According to the agency, the default rates remain contained in the short term, but refinancing risks are “increasing as debt maturities of leveraged borrowers are concentrated between 2028 and 2031.”
Still according to Fitch, the investments in AI infrastructure continue to support private fixed investment and activity in capital markets.
