In an effort to create achievements and weaken the negotiating position of the last 24 hours, with the , the and breaking it being at the center of the initiative.
Iran continues to smuggle oil
About 10.7 million barrels of Iranian crude managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and out of the US naval embargo between April 13 and 21, Reuters reported, citing data from data analytics firm Vortexa. The transfers were carried out using six tankers, which had their Automatic Identification System (AIS) disabled. The same source reports that a total of 35 crossings were recorded in the wider blockade area from April 13 to 22, involving vessels of Iranian interests or under sanctions, while maritime traffic has decreased to about 1 to 2 tankers per day, from 2 to 3 before April.
The US denies it
At the same time, however, at least as far as the naval blockade is concerned, the US maintains that not only has no ship escaped the cordon, but it is applying the blockade, which came into force on April 13, in a wider maritime zone about 300 nautical miles west, between the Iran-Pakistan border and the westernmost point of Oman. At the same time, the US has seized at least three Iranian tankers in Asian waters, while it has ordered 29 ships to change course or return to ports. More specifically, regarding the seizure of tankers further from the blockade area, the US announced a short time ago its third result.
Overnight, U.S. forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran, in the Indian Ocean within the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.
We will continue global maritime enforcement to…
— Department of War 🇺🇸 (@DeptofWar)
Demand from Iran to recognize control of the Straits
Iran, for its part, however, insists on promoting the strong control it exercises over the straits and, according to reports, in the 10-point plan of the negotiation with the USA, it requests that this control it exercises be guaranteed and recognized. It is known that for several weeks Tehran has been promoting a Suez-style toll system, with either a flat fee of $2 million per ship, or a fee based on cargo. As a pilot, a fee of at least $1 per barrel has reportedly been implemented, with a requirement to declare cargo, destination and ownership details prior to transit.
Iran collects its first tolls
In this context, as revealed by Tehran, the first revenues from transit fees have already been recorded, which were deposited in the Central Bank of Iran. There was no mention of a specific amount in the relevant announcement.
However, as noted – not of course from the Iranian side – this system conflicts with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which provides for free passage through international straits such as Hormuz. Although some 170 countries and the EU have signed the convention, neither Iran nor the US has ratified it, and Washington flatly rejects any Iranian claim of control.
American denial, impasse and consequences
The above raises reasonable questions about what is going to happen in the region as Trump may have effectively extended the truce with an open end date (until an agreement is reached) but at the same time the movements on both sides, as well as the demands for dialogue, are not actually aimed at de-escalation, on the contrary they prolong the stalemate.
It is precisely this impasse that is extremely dangerous for the global economy, as oil continues to move upwards today, well above 100 dollars a barrel. According to a related article by the Guardian, analysts estimate that a prolonged restriction on the quantities traded will keep oil market prices at high levels for a long time. And some estimate that the price of around $100 a barrel could remain for most of this year, with higher prices persisting until 2027.
This, they note, is due to the fact that while some of the Gulf’s oil and natural gas has begun to move through the region’s not-so-large pipelines, there is uncertainty about whether the region’s oil-producing states will be able to regain the volumes they produced and are moving before the war, as their infrastructure has been damaged and it will take time to restart pumping and processing facilities.
