Energy dependence on fossil fuels makes the European Union more vulnerable to “geopolitical storms” like the one we are now seeing in the Strait of Hormuz. There is only one “single form” of “European energy autonomy” – and it involves “finding a way to produce electricity that does not depend on non-European geopolitical space”
The focus on renewable energy is no longer just an “environmental issue”, having transformed, over the last five years, into a matter of “strategic sovereignty”, and is now considered “a geopolitical defense weapon” for Europe, according to Pedro Amaral Jorge, president of the Iberian electricity market operator.
The European Commission itself seems to recognize this in announcing new measures to face the energy crisis, which begins precisely by highlighting that, “for the second time in less than five years, Europeans are paying the price of dependence on fossil fuels”.
Five years ago, the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine exposed the European Union’s (EU) energy dependence on Russian gas and oil, leading European countries to commit, in 2022, to progressively eliminate dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal.
More recently, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the conflict in Iran showed how Europe’s dependence on imported fossil fuels makes us “more fragile from the point of view of sovereignty, because we are always dependent on someone selling us oil or natural gas” and, therefore, more vulnerable to “supply shocks” and, consequently, “price shocks” which, according to Pedro Amaral Jorge, “always have the same cycle”.
“The price of energy increases, the increase in energy prices causes an increase in inflation, the increase in inflation normally leads to the European Central Bank having a policy of maintaining inflation at 2%, and, therefore, it will have to impose an increase in interest rates, this increase in interest rates causes an increase in the costs of housing credit, corporate financing and creates an economic recessive cycle”, problematizes the former president of the Portuguese Renewable Energy Association (APREN).
There is only one way to guarantee “European energy autonomy”
For Pedro Amaral Jorge, electricity and the electrification of consumption are “the only way to achieve energy independence from fossil fuels”. Envisioning an “increasingly electric world”, the executive estimates that electricity, which “today represents between 25% and 30%” of total energy consumption in Europe, “will now represent 70% [do consumo total] em 2050”.
“The more we electrify energy consumption – with electric mobility, with the electrification of industrial processes – the more we reduce the need for fossil fuels and we can supply this consumption with renewable sources”, explains the expert.
Today, not only is it “cheaper” to produce electricity from renewable sources, but it is also a measure of security and strategic autonomy, since, explains Pedro Amaral Jorge, “it allows production centers to be on European territory and, therefore, we have total sovereignty over their production costs and the prices we can charge”, without being “subject to supply shocks”, as has now happened with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In other words, from Pedro Amaral Jorge’s perspective, the focus on renewables “is not an environmental issue – it is an issue of energy sovereignty, it is an issue of competitiveness for companies, it is an issue of predictability of electricity prices for consumers, whether residential or business”.
According to him, “the only way to have European energy autonomy” is to “find a way to produce electricity that does not depend on non-European geopolitical space”.
In practice, admits Pedro Amaral Jorge, it can be considered that renewable energies are today “a weapon of geopolitical defense” – an idea conveyed by the president of the European Commission herself, Ursula von der Leyen, who defended this week that investing in “clean and locally produced energy” will allow us to be “better prepared to face geopolitical storms”.
Although he agrees that “renewable energies are fundamental” to reduce energy dependence on fossil fuels, Jorge Silva Carvalho, a specialist in Security and Defense, points out that there are sectors of activity where this alternative energy is not yet an option, as is the case with aviation, for example.
“Renewables do not replace airplane fuel, they are not used to power ships – for that you need real fuel”, highlights the expert, giving as an example coal, which, he says, seems to be “out of the question” in Europe, for environmental reasons, but also nuclear energy, which, according to Jorge Silva Carvalho, “also raises some questions”,
“Changing the energy consumption of a continent like the EU cannot be done overnight”
Knowing this, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned last week that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Europe has “perhaps about six weeks’ worth of aviation fuel” – a warning that some considered and which led Galp – the oil company that produces so-called jet fuel in Portugal – to ensure that,
On this point, Pedro Amaral Jorge brings an optimistic perspective, highlighting that there are already plans for “an indirect electrification” of planes, within the scope of the European initiative, which promotes the increased use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). These fuels can be produced from different materials, such as
The idea is that “by 2050 there will be a replacement of fossil kerosene with kerosene produced from synthetic fuels of non-biological origin or renewable fuels of non-biological origin”, explains Pedro Amaral Jorge. In other words, he adds, “we will not have a direct electrification of long-haul planes, but an indirect electrification through the production of what they call, and with that, supply what is the energy transition quota of civil aviation.”
However, this initiative “is still in an embryonic phase” and “has had a very slow development”, recognizes Pedro Amaral Jorge, pointing out that the European Commission “defined goals and strategies, but then, in the implementation phase, it did not do what it should have done in terms of creating stimuli and incentives to accelerate it”.
Manuel Serrano, International Politics and European Affairs analyst, recalls that “changing the structure and energy consumption of a continent like the European Union does not happen overnight”, especially when we think that the 27 Member States “have different priorities” and, consequently, different solutions.
“The European Union often works on a logic of consensus. These consensuses are easier to find now [sem Viktor Orbán]but it is not overnight that France, for example, agrees with Portugal or Spain on energy issues”, highlights the expert, referring to the
It is in this context that Manuel Serrano understands that Brussels chooses, for now, to respond to this energy crisis with “the least invasive measures possible”, such as those announced this Thursday, such as “targeted income support schemes, energy vouchers” and “reduction of special taxes on electricity consumption for vulnerable families”.
Furthermore, the European Commission also announced the creation of a Fuel Observatory to “monitor production, imports, exports and levels of transport fuel reserves in the EU” in order to identify “potential shortage situations” and, in this case, order “releases of emergency reserves” in a “balanced” way.
“These are temporary measures”, emphasizes Manuel Serrano, admitting that doubts may later arise about “whether or not these measures can be sufficient for a crisis of this size”. “Because this crisis is not over yet”, he recalls.
