Led by Inpe scientists, recently published studies indicate an extension of the dry season from 4 to up to 6 months
By Luciana Constantino
The Brazilian Amazon is already beginning to record scenarios previously projected for the coming decades, with longer dry seasons and changes in the rainfall pattern, according to two recently published studies led by scientists from Inpe (National Institute for Space Research). The situation can intensify quickly, increasing risks to biodiversity, the replenishment of natural water reservoirs and the functioning of the forest if there are no integrated policies and initiatives to combat climate change.
The work, based on climate models that incorporate regional dynamics, also serves as a warning for this year and next, when there is the possibility of a “super El Niño”. Characterized by the warming of the Pacific Ocean in the equatorial belt, the phenomenon can, in its most intense version, raise the temperature by more than 2 °C above average, causing major changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns on a global scale.
The result of one of the surveys indicates an extension of the dry season in the Amazon from 4 to up to 6 months, with an increase in water deficit exceeding -150 millimeters (mm) in the period. node International Journal of Climatologythe article cites greater climate instability and more extreme events outside the seasonal pattern, in addition to increased forest degradation associated with fire.
which is in the March edition of Perspectives in Ecology and Conservationanalyzes the drought recorded from 2023 to 2024 in the Amazon, a period in which Brazil was also strongly affected by El Niño. The findings show an average growth of 9% in burned areas and 19% in forest degradation alerts, with up to 4.2 million hectares impacted by fire at the peak of the drought. They thus show that the drought-fire-degradation cycle is strengthening, reducing the ecosystem’s ability to restore itself.
“A few years ago, when we started discussing climate scenarios for the Amazon, this future was often seen as something distant in the most pessimistic circumstances. However, we are observing that the most pessimistic anomaly extremes are happening in the present. When we compare today’s data with projections, we see how critical this situation is becoming as we include pessimistic scenarios in the climate analysis”said the environmental and sanitary engineer, doctoral student in remote sensing at Inpe and 1st author of the 2 articles.
The biologist, Dutra’s advisor and researcher at Inpe, cites the role of scientists in the face of the dissonance between scientific evidence of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and the responses to their mitigation and containment.
“We are at a crucial moment, with national and international goals to be met by 2030. If we put our efforts in this direction, we are in a position to achieve them. We need to think about the connection between the environment, development and economy as an inseparable triad, whether on the exploration side or the price to be paid for reconstruction after the impacts. I think this climate crisis opens up an opportunity to rethink paths and how to accelerate sustainable initiatives, which seek quality of life, social and environmental justice. There is mobilization of the scientific community to contribute and show alternatives. The question is who is willing to listen to what has been studied over the last few decades”said Anderson, who leads the laboratory (acronym for TRopical Ecosystems and Environmental Sciences) alongside the researcher, also one of the authors of the articles.
Building models
In research published in International Journal of Climatologythe scientists used a metric that has been worked on by Aragão since 2007 – the maximum accumulated water deficit (MCWD), considered a key indicator of water stress in tropical ecosystems –, combined with data from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, which provides a standardized framework for climate modeling aligned with the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations.
The study was conducted in the southwest of the Amazon, covering Acre and part of the states of Amazonas and Rondônia. Home to areas with more than 90% forest cover, the region is under strong deforestation pressure.
The results show that, in scenarios of high greenhouse gas emissions, there is an intensification of water deficits during the dry season in the Amazon, especially in the southwestern portion of the forest. Projections indicate longer and more intense dry seasons, with an increase in water stress between June and September and deficits that could exceed -21 mm/month by the end of the century in the most pessimistic scenario.
This worsening tends to produce direct impacts on the forest, with greater tree mortality, forest degradation and loss of biodiversity, in addition to reducing the Amazon’s capacity to act as a carbon sink, reinforcing a feedback cycle between degradation and global warming.
To improve future projections and climate risk assessments in the region, the researchers suggest, among other points, the adoption of integrated analyzes that incorporate changes in land use, anomalies in atmospheric circulation and interactions between fires and droughts.
In research that analyzed the extreme drought of 2023 and 2024, the group mapped and quantified water stress, forest degradation and fire dynamics, identifying implications for environmental management. The study concluded that the drought intensified the interaction between water deficit, fires and degradation, with fire increasingly associated with the weakening of standing forest, and not just deforestation. While deforestation completely removes vegetation cover, degradation weakens the forest without completely destroying it.
According to the work, the results highlight the need for integrated fire governance, bringing together climate indicators and warning systems, strengthening institutional coordination and incorporating forest degradation into mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Sewing science and practical initiatives
Under Anderson’s coordination, Dutra has been studying the impacts of fire in the Amazon forest for some years and published an article on fires in the municipality of Boca do Acre, in Amazonas (read more).
Since last year, the researchers have been part of the “Fogo em Foco” initiative, a partnership between operational combat and fire prevention forces (such as the Military Fire Department of several States) and research institutions. To mark the launch of the program, the TREES laboratory, the Brasa research network and the League of Military Firefighters held an event in October with the release of the report “Fogo em Foco 2024-2025” and the international article “”.
According to Anderson, in April this joint work with firefighters was authorized to continue until 2026. “This approach is a way of combining what science can deliver with the reality of those who work at the forefront, both in prevention and combat strategies. We try to combine science and actions in society. But there is still a point where we need to move forward, which is the magnitude of the economic impact and how much this means for the country’s development”declared the researcher.
Therefore, Dutra decided to delve into the topic and will work on his doctoral thesis with data on the potential for economic losses resulting from fire, discussing not only forestry issues, but also health and social impacts.
It receives it from Fapesp, which also supported the 2 articles through 5 other projects – , , and , including ().
The articles Dry-season water deficits in the Southwestern Amazon under high emissions e Intensification of drought-associated wildfires challenges actions for Amazonia’s sustainable development can be read, respectively, and .
This text was published by Agência Fapesp, on April 16, 2026. The content is free for republication, with the source cited, and was adapted to the standard of Poder360.
