Sociologist and political scientist Alberto Carlos Almeida stated that the consolidation of a polarized scenario between President Luiz Inácio da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) makes it difficult to advance a “third way” in the 2026 presidential election. The analysis was carried out during participation in the WW Especial program, on CNN Brazilwhen discussing electoral possibilities outside the two main political camps.
According to Almeida, voter behavior is not only organized between left and right, but also between support and rejection of the government. “You have a composition of the vote that is neither left nor right, it is government and opposition,” he stated.
He explained that satisfied voters tend to opt for administrative continuity, while dissatisfied voters seek a clear alternative to rupture. “Today, the voter who wants to maintain the government, which we can call a pro-government voter, already has a candidate, it is the candidate who is in the government. If I am satisfied with the government, if I am a pro-government voter, I vote for the government to continue”, he said.
On the other hand, he added: “The voter who wants to change, the opposition voter, already has a candidate, he votes for Flávio Bolsonaro.”
In the sociologist’s assessment, the current scenario reproduces, with inverted signs, the logic of the previous election. “The last election was Lula versus Bolsonaro, but Lula was the opposition candidate. This election just reversed: Lula is the government candidate, and Flávio, in this case, is the opposition candidate”, he analyzed.
In this context, Almeida points out that the main obstacle for alternative candidacies is competing with the already consolidated opposition electorate. “The challenge of a third way is to remove the votes from Flávio Bolsonaro and bring them to you, given that Bolsonaro was present in the last election and is present in this election”, he pointed out.
For him, this movement would require an even more critical stance towards the government than that adopted by the Bolsonarist camp itself. “This candidate, to take the votes from Flávio Bolsonaro and take it for himself, be it [Romeu] Earth [Ronaldo] Caiado, he has to be more oppositional to the Lula government than Flávio Bolsonaro is. This is very difficult. He has to attack Lula much more than the Bolsonaro family already attacks and has always been attacking”, he concluded.
WW Especial
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*Posted by Jorge Fernando Rodrigues
