Quaest research released this Monday (27) shows that the former mayor of Rio de Janeiro () is leading the race for the Government of Rio de Janeiro.
In a scenario in which he competes with the Bolsonaro candidate (PL) and former governor Anthony Garotinho (Republicans), the mayor has 34% of voting intentions in the first round.
Ruas, president of Alerj (Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly), scores 9%, technically tied with Garotinho, who scores 8%. Also former governor Wilson Witzel (DC) gets 3%. Blank or null votes total 20%, as do undecided votes.
In another scenario, in which Garotinho is not mentioned to voters as a candidate, Paes appears with 40%, Ruas with 10%, and Witzel continues with 3%.
The margin of error is three percentage points, plus or minus. The survey interviewed 1,200 voters between Tuesday (21) and Saturday (25) April.
In the second round, in a possible dispute between Paes and Ruas, Paes appears with 49% of the votes and Ruas, with 16%.
The survey also heard from voters about the assessment of Cláudio Castro’s (PL) government. Among those interviewed, 36% considered the government negative, 32% evaluated it as regular, and 23% as positive.
Senate
Even so, Castro appears to be leading the Senate race, in a year in which each voter will be able to elect two senators. In a first scenario, the former governor appears with 12% of voting intentions, followed by Benedita da Silva (PT), with 10%. Delegate Felipe Curi (PL) and Marcelo Crivella (Republicans) have 6% each.
In a scenario in which Castro does not run for the Senate, Benedita leads with 11%, followed by Crivella, with 8%, and Curi with 7%.
The survey was commissioned by Genial Investimentos and registered with the Electoral Court under number RJ-00613/2026.
The dispute for command of the state this year takes place in the midst of an institutional crisis following the resignation of the former governor () and the revocation of his mandate, in addition to Rodrigo Bacellar (União Brasil).
With the departure of elected vice-governor Thiago Pampolha, in 2025, to take up a vacancy at the TCE (State Audit Court), a situation of double vacancy in command of the Executive was consolidated.
Elected president of Alerj on April 17, Douglas Ruas would be next in line to command the Guanabara Palace, but he did not take up the post due to a decision by the (Supreme Federal Court). The court determined , president of the TJ-RJ (Court of Justice of Rio de Janeiro), as interim governor until a buffer governor is chosen.
