There is neither peace nor war; neither resolution nor conflict. The contest that began just two months ago this Tuesday is trapped in an interregnum of which the talksso far unsuccessful, they have not been able to start it. From the April 7 ceasefire —and, above all, since Trump announced last week that the cessation of hostilities became indefinite but conditional on the progress of the negotiations—the war in Middle East has remained suspended in limbo indefinite, without war because Israeli and US planes are not constantly flying over and attacking Irannor the Persian ballistic missiles and drones are directed at all hours against both the Jewish State and the Gulf countries.
But there is no peace either: Iran continues economically besiegedand now it is not even able to export its own crude oil through the Strait of Hormuzdouble blocked by Washingtonwhich thus drowns the Islamic Republic. Iran, during the war, could export through the route, closed to “all enemy countries” from the February 28. “The ceasefire stopped hostilities, but has not produced a stable political framework. On the contrary, it has led to an indeterminate and unstable phase, in which the talks continue alongside economic coercion, maritime tensions and, of course, persistent possibility of the war starting again,” writes the Iranian analyst, Hamidreza Azizi.
Hurry to finish
This situation, according to the consensus of experts, favors the US, which is a priori in less hurry than Iran to reach a definitive ending of the war. In this conflict, the Islamic Republic system has managed to survive, yes, and has discovered the closure of Hormuz as a tool with which threaten economically the world, but has been enormously vulnerable to the constant murders of Israel. And, more importantly, it emerges from it in a extreme economic situationwith a runaway inflation to which will be added the reconstruction after the war.
“The Iranian government increasingly understands the situation as a suspended conflict. The biggest fear is not only that negotiations will fail, but that they will continue but not resolve the conflict, leaving Iran vulnerable to more pressure in the future and without having the ability to defend himself,” says Azizi, and that is why, during the last two days, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchihas been visiting Oman and Russiato include these two countries in a possible solution to the halt in negotiations.
Iran shares the waters of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. Russia, a traditional ally of Tehran, has shown itself willing to keep the 440 kg of highly enriched uraniumcurrently under the possession of Iran. This uranium, at purity levels higher than 60%is close to 90% necessary to develop the atomic bomb. “We hope that peace will prevail in these difficult times. Russia is prepared to do everything in the interests of Iran and other countries in the region,” said the Russian president, Vladimir Putinto Araghchi, according to the Russian state news agency, RIA Novosti.
Costs and benefits
Pakistana country that has led the mediation between Washington and Tehran, assures that the communication exchange between the two capitals continues. There is, however, no date or forecast for another meeting to occur, more than two weeks after the first round of negotiations, classified as a “failure” by the US vice president, J.D. Vance. Not only Iran, however, pays the price for this war in limbo. As long as Hormuz remains closed, the international oil and gas markets They are limited to one fifth of their pre-war output.
Although the ceasefire is indefinite, in Trump’s own words, the world economy He cannot afford to last much longer with the road closed. Iran, in fact, neither, and threatens to also hit the crossing Bab the Mandebwhich connects the Red Sea and the indian oceanif the US does not lift the closure of Hormuz to Iranian ships. “We are in a moment of fragile balance —Azizi says—. There is no clear path to the end of the conflict. “Now we have everything at once: diplomacy, coercion and, above all, a lot of uncertainty.”
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