The approval of Jorge Messias in the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Senate, by 16 votes to 11, was below what was expected by Palácio do Planalto and recorded the smallest margin among nominees to the Federal Supreme Court since at least 2002. The government worked with the expectation of reaching at least 18 votes in favor, which was not confirmed.
The tight score comes after a week of intensified political negotiations. In the days leading up to the hearing, the government committed approximately 100,000 efforts to reinforce the base and reduce resistance to the nomination.
Even with the effort, the result exposes weaknesses in the articulation and raises doubts about the nominee’s performance in the Senate plenary, where at least 41 votes are needed for definitive approval.
Even with resistance, the possibility of rejecting a name nominated to the STF is considered remote. However, throughout the more than 100 years of the Republic.
Previous votes
Recent indications passed the CCJ with wider margins, although under contestation. André Mendonça, nominated by Jair Bolsonaro (PL), was approved by 18 to 9. Alexandre de Moraes, named Michel Temer (MDB), had 19 votes in favor and 7 against. Edson Fachin, nominated by Dilma Rousseff (PT) in the midst of the 2015 political crisis, obtained 20 to 7.
In the first months of the current government, the scenario was more comfortable. Cristiano Zanin was approved by 21 to 5, while Flávio Dino received 17 votes in favor and 10 against. In both cases, the government base operated with greater cohesion.
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Messias’ performance reflects a more fragmented environment in the Senate. The nomination faced resistance since the announcement and occurred amid tensions between the Executive and Legislative branches, in addition to pressure from the opposition to increase the political cost of the vote.
In the plenary, the requirement for an absolute majority increases the weight of political negotiation. The CCJ result, although sufficient to move forward, serves as a warning sign about the government’s margin of safety in the final vote.
See previous CCJ votes:
- Jorge Messias – nominated by Lula (2026) – 16 votes in favor x 11 votes against
- Flavio Dino – nominated by Lula (2023) – 17 votes in favor x 10 votes against
- Cristiano Zanin – nominated by Lula (2023) – 21 votes in favor x 5 votes against
- André Mendonça – nominated by Bolsonaro (2021) – 18 votes in favor x 9 votes against
- Nunes Brands – nominated by Bolsonaro (2020) – 22 votes in favor x 5 votes against
- Alexandre de Moraes – nominated by Temer (2017) – 19 votes in favor x 7 votes against
- Edson Fachin – nominated by Dilma (2015) – 20 votes in favor x 7 votes against
- Luís Roberto Barroso – nominated by Dilma (2013) – 26 votes in favor x 1 vote against
- Zavascki theory – nominated by Dilma (2012) – 18 votes in favor x 1 vote against
- Rosa Weber – nominated by Dilma (2011) – 19 votes in favor x 3 votes against
- Luiz Fux – nominated by Dilma (2011) – 23 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Toffoli Days – nominated by Lula (2009) – 20 votes in favor x 3 votes against
- Menezes Right – nominated by Lula (2007) – 22 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Carmen Lucia – nominated by Lula (2006) – 23 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Ricardo Lewandowski – nominated by Lula (2006) – 22 votes in favor x 1 vote against
- Eros Grau – nominated by Lula (2004) – 20 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Ayres Britto – nominated by Lula (2003) – 20 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Joaquim Barbosa – nominated by Lula (2003) – 21 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Cezar Peluso – nominated by Lula (2003) – 19 votes in favor x 0 votes against
- Gilmar Mendes – nominated by FHC (2002) – 16 votes in favor x 6 votes against
