The Ideia Institute will release next Wednesday (6) a new round of electoral research for the Presidency of the Republic, in partnership with the Quitein a scenario marked by recent government wear and tear in Congress. The survey was carried out between May 1st and 6th, with 1,500 interviews and a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
The poll includes first-round simulations and six second-round scenarios, all with the presence of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT). Among the opponents tested are Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Ciro Gomes (PSDB), Romeu Zema (Novo), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão) and Aldo Rebelo (DC). The objective is to measure Lula’s competitiveness in the face of different candidate profiles.
The data will be released after two recent episodes that impacted the political environment: the rejection of Jorge Messias’ name from the Federal Supreme Court and the overturning of the presidential veto on the dosimetry project. The research seeks to capture how these events influence voter perception.
In the previous round, published on April 8, Lula appeared numerically ahead in the first round, with 40.5% of voting intentions, against 37% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Considering the margin of error, the scenario indicated a technical draw. In the second round, the dispute between the two was also balanced, with 45.8% for Flávio and 45.5% for Lula.
In addition to voting intentions, the survey delves into topics that tend to influence the campaign. Among them are cost of living, family debt and the impact of the economy on voter decisions. The survey also includes questions about proposals defended by pre-candidates, such as the impeachment of STF ministers and the possible change in working hours with the end of the 6×1 scale.
The study also measures the level of voter engagement with the 2026 election, assessing the level of interest in participating in the election. It also investigates the perception of the rejection of Jorge Messias’ nomination to the STF and the preferences for choosing a new name for the Court.
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Another point analyzed is voter behavior in relation to online betting, in addition to the perception of measures that may affect income and daily life, such as changes in labor rules.
