The senator (-RJ) appears ahead of the president () in São Paulo in a second round scenario tested by Genial/Quaest research, while the PT member leads in states in the Northeast. In Minas Gerais, there is a technical draw.
The son of the former president (PL) scores 47% among São Paulo residents, compared to 35% for the current head of the Executive — a 12 percentage point difference. The congressman also records an advantage in Rio Grande do Sul (+26 percentage points), in Paraná (+20), in Goiás (+13) and in Rio de Janeiro (+13).
On the other hand, Lula is ahead in Bahia (+33), in Pernambuco (+34) and in Ceará (+28). In Pará, the PT member has a 7 point advantage, while in Minas he appears numerically ahead, with 39% of intentions, against 36% for Flávio, which constitutes a technical tie.
The research considered the ten largest states in the country, which correspond to around 75% of the national electorate. A total of 11,646 home interviews were carried out with voters aged 16 and over.
The margin of error is 3 percentage points for all states, with the exception of São Paulo, for which it is 2 percentage points. The confidence level is 95%.
In the first round, Flávio has the highest percentage of votes in Paraná (38%), while Lula leads in Pernambuco (53%), Ceará (50%) and Bahia (49%). The former governor () appears prominently in Goiás (31%), and (Novo) reaches 11% in Minas Gerais.
In an alternative scenario of a second round against Zema, Lula draws with the former Minas Gerais governor on the margin of error in Minas, São Paulo, Goiás, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul and wins in Pará, Rio de Janeiro and the Northeast states.
In the simulation with Caiado as the opponent, he only has an advantage in Goiás. The PT member draws in São Paulo, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul and beats the former governor in Minas, Pará, Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco, Ceará and Bahia.
Government assessment
The Lula government’s assessment follows a similar pattern.
The president is best rated in Pernambuco, Bahia and Ceará, where his administration is considered positive by 47%, 45% and 45%, respectively.
In Pará, there is more balance between positive (34%), regular (30%) and negative (33%).
In Minas Gerais, the negative assessment is 42%. In Rio Grande do Sul, 41%; in São Paulo, 45%; in Paraná, 47%; in Rio de Janeiro, 46%; and in Goiás, 49%.
