Lebanon: A tragedy that repeats itself
Lebanon, a country long torn between the interests of Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, has once again found itself at the center of violence. Even before the beginning of the fragile cease-fire, which Israel often violates, southern Lebanon turned into a battlefield. Analyzes of satellite images show a shocking level of destruction. Entire villages have been razed to the ground as part of an Israeli strategy that analysts have compared to operations in Gaza.
Israel’s attacks in Lebanon have claimed more than two thousand victims.
More than a million people, or more than 20 percent of Lebanon’s population, have been displaced, while the country’s infrastructure, already weakened by previous crises, is collapsing under the weight of new attacks. Beirut has once again become a city of fear. For Lebanon, this war does not mean only a military conflict, but the definitive end of the hope for the early restoration of the state.
Gulf States: End of the Illusion of Security
For years, countries in the Gulf, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, have tried to profile themselves as safe havens for global trade and tourism. That illusion has dissipated over the past 60 days. The UAE has been the target of repeated attacks by pro-Iranian militias, seriously threatening its position as a global financial center.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is even more critical. Iran’s decision to close this key maritime artery has dealt a heavy blow to the economies of Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq. These states, while trying to avoid direct involvement in the fighting, are now hostage to geography. The interruption of oil and natural gas supplies to the world causes not only regional tension, but also global nervousness in the markets.
Oil prices and the new Cold War
The impact of the war has long gone beyond the borders of the Middle East. The price of oil remains stable above the 100-120 dollar per barrel mark, which drives inflation in both Europe and the US. Washington, though militarily dominant, finds that the price for this victory may be unbearably high. Domestic opposition in the United States grows with each additional billion-dollar military aid package and each increase in gas station prices.
At the same time, the conflict is becoming a new hotbed for tensions between the US and China. Beijing found itself in a difficult situation.
On the one hand, it needs a stable supply of energy from the Middle East, on the other hand, the Iran war weakens its main rival. News that China is asking its banks to ignore US sanctions against Iranian entities suggests that the war with Iran is just one front in a wider global power struggle.
So who wins?
If we were looking for winners, we would have to look outside the military maps. The only entities that benefit are arms companies and radical ideologies. For almost everyone else—from the ordinary Iranian in Tehran, to the Israeli civilian in cover, to the European consumer—this conflict is a net loss.
There is no doubt that the Russian economy is benefiting from this conflict. High oil and fertilizer prices mean additional revenue for the Kremlin — especially after the U.S. temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil that was already offshore to bring new supplies to the market at a time of rising prices.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said earlier this week that Russia’s energy revenues nearly doubled to $19 billion in March from $9.75 billion in February. However, Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian oil facilities – particularly ports and refineries – have limited the amount of oil Russia can sell.
Military analysts warn that even the eventual fall of the Iranian regime may not bring peace. There is a risk of a power vacuum that could lead to even more chaos in the region, similar to what we saw in Iraq or Libya.
The impasse of geopolitics
Two months of fighting did not bring a decisive breakthrough. The Iranian regime, although weakened, still holds the reins of power. Israel and the US, although technologically more advanced, cannot completely eliminate the threat of asymmetric attacks. Meanwhile, humanitarian costs are climbing to astronomical heights.
While politicians in Washington and Tehran talk about national security and honor, the real picture of war is devastated cities and a global economy on the brink of recession. After two months, it is clear that the road to ending this conflict will be much more painful than the road to its beginning. The world looks to the summer of 2026 with apprehension, because if a diplomatic solution cannot be found, the list of losers will only grow.
