Decades ago, Beijing and Washington discussed the devaluation of the yuan, Chinese violations of intellectual property and Taiwan. They now discuss artificial intelligence (AI), US restrictions on technological exports, Chinese industrial overproduction and Taiwan. The tenants pass by the White House and the island continues ruling the agenda. Beijing has reminded on the eve of Trump’s arrival that it is the thicker red line and the essential requirement of healthy bilateral relations. The rest is just business, accounting entries in the balance of foreign trade. Taiwan is sacred.
Trump descended from Air Force One into the Beijing night to meet hundreds of laughing young Chinese waving Chinese and American flags at the foot of the runway. Two stressful days await you, with various meetings and official dinners, which will set the tone of your coexistence with China for the remainder of the term. There is no doubt about his personal harmony if we listen to Trump, but in the path of the two superpowers there is no shortage of latent threats.
“The Chinese understand our position on the matter and we understand theirs,” clarified the Secretary of State, Marco Rubioon the eve of Trump’s arrival, on Taiwan. The American position is known, but there are nuances, and they are not irrelevant in such an erogenous issue. Trump does not have enough pressure levers, weakened after losing the trade war against China and stuck in the Iranian conflict, so Taipei fears being on the negotiating menu. Chinese pressures are certain; The question is how far Trump will take his Phoenician policy.
Weapon sales
Trump could, for example, state that Washington “opposes” Taiwanese independence, separating himself from the “no support” policy followed by all his predecessors. That rhetorical trifle would be enough to stage his approach to the Chinese theses, cause a tsunami in the Strait of Formosa and ruin the day of Lai Ching-te, Taiwanese president. A historic victory for Xi Jinping. But the debates about Taiwan go far beyond a statement. They also reach arms sales and his visit coincides with a delicate moment.
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, is received by the vice president of China, Han Zheng, in the presence of Elon Musk, after his arrival in Beijing. / BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP
In December, Trump authorized an operation 11 billion dollarsthe largest in history. It so incensed China that two days of military maneuvers off the Taiwanese coast and Xi’s warning to Trump to handle those sales “with caution.” But the weapons have not yet arrived and Trump has announced that he will discuss it with Xi in Beijing. Another operation worth $14 billion is in its final stages of processing and could be approved after Trump’s return from Beijing. With this arsenal towards Taiwan, it is foreseeable that the Chinese appetite for military and others American agricultural products. Trump is under strong internal pressure to honor a relationship of almost half a century. Eight senators, Democrats and Republicans, asked him in a letter Friday to continue with the operations. Cancellation is an unrealistic scenario; China could be satisfied with the reduction or delay.
“Taiwan is the issue that interests Xi the most because it reinforces his political stature internally and puts him in an optimal position for next year’s party congress,” judges Xulio Ríos, founder of the Chinese Policy Observatory. He predicts gestures, such as the sale of arms divided into several terms or the stopping of Honduras’ shift to the Taiwanese orbit, but no drastic change in US policy. It happens that gestures also matter and the current debate on arms sales is unprecedented. “The fact that this is being talked about is already interpreted by the Taiwanese as a breach of the six guarantees of Ronald Reagan. But Trump will not go very far because he would have a very complicated internal reading. The Taiwanese lobby is very powerful in Washington. And Taiwan is very relevant to the United States, not only because of its chipsbut for his strategic relevance“he concludes.
Little sympathy for the island
Trump’s relationship with Taiwan suffers from its usual inconsistency. After winning her first elections, she answered the congratulatory call from the Taiwanese president and they had to explain to her that she couldn’t even talk about the weather with her. Soon after, he asked himself why he had to respect the one-China principle. In his second term he has shown very little sympathy for the island. He has accused her of stealing the microchip industry from the United States and forced her to make massive investments in her country to avoid its tariff fury. On the commitment to defend it from a Chinese attack, ironclad in times of Joe Bidenit has been much warmer. In return, it has encouraged the island to enrich the US arms industry. In just one year he has signed more sales than his predecessor during his entire mandate.
Trump has found the enthusiasm of the pro-independence government but the Parliament, controlled by the opposition, insists that there are better destinations for the island’s wealth. Last week he finally approved the special allocation of 25 billion dollars for weapons. They are far from the 40 billion proposed by Lai and his disappointment was shared by US congressmen. Trump faces this complex context in Beijing, with the Shakespearean dilemma of prioritizing its arms or agricultural sector.
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