Electrical sector committee requested new technical studies on parameters used in the calculation and maintained current rules
The federal government decided to postpone a technical change that could make electricity bills cheaper, but would also bring more risks of power outages. In a meeting this Wednesday (May 13, 2026), (Electricity Sector Monitoring Committee), linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, asked for more studies technicians and maintained, for now, the current model: the CVaR 15/40. Here’s the statement.
In a note, the committee states that it requested the ONS (National Electric System Operator) and the CCEE (Electric Energy Trading Chamber) for additional assessments regarding the impacts of the results of the Capacity Reserve Auctions in the form of 2026 Power, held in March.
“As soon as the requested evaluations are made available, the CMSE will meet to deliberate on the topic“, stated the committee.
CVaR (Conditional Value at Risk) is a mechanism used in computational models in the electricity sector to measure the risk of energy shortages in adverse hydrological scenarios.
In practice, the parameter defines the degree of conservatism adopted in the operation of the electrical system. It influences how much water must be preserved in hydroelectric plant reservoirs and how much thermoelectric plants must be activated preventively.
The model currently in force gives greater weight to critical hydrological scenarios in PLD (Difference Settlement Price) calculations, which tends to encourage the preventive dispatch of thermal plants and the preservation of reservoirs.
The so-called CVaR 15/40 determines that the 15% worst hydrological scenarios receive a weight of 40% in the calculations used to define plant dispatch and the PLD.
The greater the risk aversion, the greater the dispatch of thermal plants and the preservation of reservoirs, which normally increases the cost of energy in the short term, but reduces the risk of lack of supply in periods of drought.
Entities that defend the flexibility of the model claim that the current level of risk aversion artificially raises energy prices by stimulating excessive dispatch of thermal plants even in more comfortable reservoir scenarios.
A (Brazilian Association of Electric Energy Traders), for example, defends migration to CVaR 15/30. In contributing to the market consultation carried out by CMSE, the association mentions that the change would generate savings of R$5.4 billion in the cost of thermoelectric generation, which would allow for an estimated tariff reduction of 0.98%. Here’s the of the document.
Meanwhile, agents in favor of maintaining CVaR 15/40 state that the current parameter is necessary to preserve higher levels of storage in reservoirs and reduce supply risks in adverse hydrological scenarios.
They have already defended this position:
- (Brazilian Association of Electricity Generating Companies);
- (Brazilian Association of Thermoelectric Generators);
- (Brazilian Association of Independent Electricity Producers).
