Another week of conflict in the Middle East – which continues with no prospect of completion – took the financial market to redo their accounts and imagine new scenarios for the future.
In a report dated Friday (15), Santander points out the intensity and duration of the energy shock as determinants for the repricing of the macroeconomic scenario.
The Spanish bank now sees the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) for 2026 at 5.1% – previously, it was betting that it would close equal to the 4.5% ceiling of the inflation target – and raised the projection of the basic interest rate to 13.25% per year at the end of the cutting cycle, compared to 12.5% previously.
“One more persistent oil shock returns to redefine the scenario. Higher Brent prices boost exports, support the BRL and tax revenues, but increase costs and inflation. It could also trigger additional fiscal measures, increasing uncertainty and complicating the path to disinflation”, he highlights.
“Short-term external and fiscal buffers do not eliminate medium-term risks. Greater persistence of inflation and a more restricted labor market impose a higher Selic trajectory, reinforcing pressure on public debt dynamics”, he adds.
Santander emphasizes that “the inflationary scenario has become more challenging”, considering that and the , but also freight costs and risk premiums.
The view that the oil shock puts pressure on internal costs, with a direct impact on fuels and production chains, in addition to making it difficult for inflation to converge to the target in the relevant horizon is shared by other houses.
However, the Focus bulletin returned, for the ninth week in a row, to pointing out an increase in the market’s median expectation for inflation, .
Morgan Stanley highlights, in a report on Tuesday (12), that the duration of the energy shock will be decisive for the behavior of global inflation, with oil being able to remain close to US$90 or even advance in more extreme scenarios.
For Brazil, the bank states that the disinflation process has been partially interrupted, although it still sees room for interest cuts at a more moderate pace.
After the release of , when considering , Goldman Sachs started to project an upward risk for its interest rate forecast of 13.25% at the end of 2026.
In , the panel highlighted among the risks of rising inflation the incorporation into expectations of “potential second-order impacts of restrictions on the supply of oil and its derivatives”.
Morgan Stanley already says: “in Brazil, inflationary pressures will increase in the second half of 2026, as Petrobras gradually adjusts fuel prices in the domestic market and.”
And even if the war ends today, there will be a hangover time until the scenario returns to normal, recalls Marcela Kawauti, chief economist at Lifetime Investimentos.
“The effect is permanent, and if the war enters the second half of the year, we will probably import much more expensive fertilizers. There are a lot of people holding off on importing fertilizers as long as they can, but from what I’ve heard, if it goes from the first to the second half of the year, imports will actually have to be made at a higher price”, he explains.
“The war is taking a long time to end, we still haven’t received a transfer from Petrobras and we already have higher inflation. Even if you have some compensation via taxes, you may have more expensive oil all over the world, so you also import inflation from abroad”, he points out.
