The landing of Vladimir Putin four days after takeoff Donald Trump and the recent pilgrimage of European leaders confirms Beijing as the capital of geopolitics. The Russian president comes on a state visit, with similar pomp and circumstance to that enjoyed by the American, to certify that the health of the Beijing-Moscow axis does not suffer cyclically due to trade wars, export restrictions or disagreements over Taiwan. “Our relations,” Putin said the day before, “have reached truly unprecedented levels.”
Morbid comparisons will be inevitable. Trump repeatedly refers to Xi Jinping as a good friend without getting him to abandon diplomatic coldness. Xi and Putin call each other “great friend” and “old friend” without modesty and share daily scenes with the chemistry that Trump craves. Time has solidified the friendship. They have met 40 times in Putin’s two decades in power. This will be his twenty-fifth visit to China and the eight months since the last one, in the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War, already seemed like a lot. “He is our chief guest,” Xi then conceded.
The Kremlin has advanced that this summit will serve for the Chinese leader to update him on what he discussed with Trump. His confidences now form part of the casuistry. Putin called Xi shortly after speaking with Washington about the Ukraine war, and the two spoke after the Chinese leader congratulated Trump on his re-election. Half a century ago, with Nixon’s historic visit to Beijing, Washington achieved one of its great diplomatic achievements: preventing the two communist powers from getting closer. “I think I can untie them”Trump advanced in October, and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, repeated that he wanted to “dilute their ties.” That scenario is utopian today, due to the Sino-Russian tune and the clumsiness of the White House.
Reduce the influence of the West
Russia and China encourage each other to achieve “changes the world has not seen in a century” and reduce the influence of the West by strengthening alternative organizations to traditional architecture such as BRICS. Trump contributes to his mission with tariff wallsattacks on I’LL TAKEenvironmental passatism and threats to Greenland o Canada. Trade, security, the goal of a multipolar world and distrust of the United States have strengthened their ties. Also in the iran war have joined forces in the UN Security Council to overthrow the sanctions. They have emerged stronger from that conflict. China reinforces its role as a responsible power committed to peace, which does not create wars or aggravate them, without the closure of Hormuz having compromised its energy security. Russia has chained orders from Asia to provide an outlet for the hydrocarbons that the West bought from it years ago.
It also reassured Beijing if the prolonged conflict empties its crude oil reserves: it will be there to fill them again. The exports Russian flights to China have increased by 35% in the first four months of the year, Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s assistant, has revealed. “During the Middle East crisis, Russia remains a stable supplier and China is a responsible consumer,” he added. Beijing has been Moscow’s main trading partner for 16 years and on this visit, which coincides with the 25th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, the energy cooperation will occupy a central role.
Last year they agreed to ship an additional 2.5 million metric tons annually to China. The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, although already signed, has not gone beyond the plans and remains stuck due to price negotiations. Bargaining with China tortures Russia because it comes to the negotiating table with manifest weakness: first, after its annexation of Crimea; later, with his invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions deprive it of alternatives and China takes advantage of the market opportunity to sign bargains. The Middle East crisis gives Putin some relief for the first time. China prioritizes the diversification of sources and avoids excessive dependence on one country, even on Russia, but the problems in the Middle East could qualify its position.
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