Estrela’s judicial recovery illustrates the moment of credit pressure on companies

The request from toy manufacturer Estrela, one of the most traditional brands in the Brazilian industry, reinforced the scenario of financial pressure faced by companies in different sectors of the economy amid expensive credit and a challenging macroeconomic environment.

In a statement to the market, the company stated that the decision stems from the need to restructure its liabilities in the face of “relevant economic and sectoral pressures”, citing the increase in the cost of capital, credit restrictions and changes in the behavior of children’s consumers, with increasing competition from digital alternatives.

The Estrela case occurs at a time when judicial recoveries remain at a historically high level in Brazil, as shown in a survey carried out by Serasa Experian in 2025, the year in which a historic record of companies undergoing judicial recovery was recorded, with 2,466 CNPJs involved, an increase of 13% compared to 2024, the highest volume in the institution’s historical series. From a procedural perspective, there were 977 requests for judicial recovery, an increase of 5.5%, also at the highest level since 2016.

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Serasa’s new methodology differentiates the number of processes from the effective number of companies impacted, showing that a single request can involve several CNPJs from the same economic group, expanding the real scope of the corporate crisis.

High interest

The backdrop to this deterioration continues to be the restrictive financial environment. Although the Central Bank began cutting the basic interest rate this year, the Selic remains at 14.5% per year, still considered a very high level for companies highly dependent on credit. After reaching 15% in June 2025, the rate fell, but the market is already working with the possibility of slower monetary easing in the face of inflationary pressures and international instability caused by the oil shock.

According to analysts, the high interest rate environment for a prolonged period ended up exposing operational and management weaknesses in several companies, at the same time as it made debt rollovers more expensive and restricted new lines of financing.

Serasa itself sees warning signs for 2026. According to the datatech’s chief economist, Camila Abdelmalack, the fact that the growth rate of recoveries slowed down last year does not necessarily mean an improvement this year, as the combination between economic slowdown, selective credit and default still inspires caution.

The numbers help to measure the pressure: 8.7 million companies were negative in January 2026, with an average debt of R$23,138 per CNPJ and around seven restrictions per defaulting company, according to Serasa. Historically, default usually precedes more intense judicial recovery movements.

Serasa data shows that financial pressure is not concentrated in just one segment. Agriculture led judicial recoveries in 2025, accounting for 30.1% of the CNPJs involved, followed closely by services (30%), commerce (21.7%) and industry (18.2%).

Reorganization opportunity

For experts, the advancement of judicial recoveries should not be read only as a portrait of business collapse, but also as a change in the way the mechanism began to be used in Brazil.

Daniela Lubianca, business lawyer and partner at Tahech Advogados, states that judicial recovery is no longer seen exclusively as a terminal stage before bankruptcy and has started to function, in many cases, as an instrument of financial reorganization.

“Today, judicial recovery has started to be used as a legitimate tool for business restructuring, allowing viable companies to reorganize liabilities, maintain jobs, preserve operations and regain their economic capacity”, he states.

In the opinion of Adilson Bolico, partner at Mortari Bolico Advogados, the macroeconomic environment continues to put pressure on companies’ cash, with the impact of high interest rates, a complex tax scenario and credit restrictions. He considers, however, that the instrument also requires caution. “In some cases, judicial recovery fulfills the function of preserving business activity, jobs and revenue. But it needs to go through a rigorous judicial review and a plan that demonstrates effective economic viability”, he says.

For companies that still seek to avoid this path, the recommendation is to act before the crisis becomes unavoidable. Bruna Florian, lawyer at EFCAN Advogados, compares judicial recovery to extreme treatment. “Judicial recovery is like chemotherapy: it can save the company, but it is also a very painful process. Before that, it is essential to restructure debts, renegotiate contracts, review costs and even rethink the business model itself”, he states.

In the same vein, Pedro Cavalcante Amorim Quercia, partner at Chalfin Goldberg & Vainboim Advogados, defends a preventive stance, with strengthening corporate governance, constant financial monitoring and the use of less traumatic alternatives, such as private renegotiations or extrajudicial recoveries, before judicialization.

“In the end, high interest rates are important and help to accelerate the crisis. But it would be simplistic to attribute the increase in recoveries to this alone. What we see is a combination of factors such as expensive debt, more selective credit, tight margins, chain defaults and relevant changes in consumer behavior. In many cases, the company does not seek recovery because it is no longer viable, but rather because the debt structure has become incompatible with its cash generation capacity” summarizes Bruno Gameiro, lawyer specializing in restructuring and judicial recovery, partner founder of Gameiro Advogados

Star Case

In the case of Estrela, this is confirmed, because in addition to more expensive credit, there are structural transformations in the toy market itself. The industry has been facing increasing competition from imported products for years and, more recently, the fight for children’s attention with digital platforms, electronic games and new entertainment formats, which have been changing consumption habits and putting pressure on traditional manufacturers.

Founded in 1937 by Siegfried Adler, the manufacturer, which started with rag dolls, won over generations with classics such as Genius, Susi and Falcon. Over the years it has become one of the largest toy manufacturers in the country, but this is not the first time the company has faced difficulties. In the 1990s, Estrela had problems opening the market to imports. He also had to deal with the break with Mattel, putting an end to a 30-year partnership, which allowed the company to sell the Barbie doll in Brazil. Then, in the 2000s, it had another important loss, with the end of licensing of games from the American company Hasbro, which marked its line such as Monopoly and Detective.

A central figure appears in the transformation of the Star. Carlos Tilkian assumed the vice-presidency of the company in 1993, after leaving Gessy Lever (currently Unilever), and three years later surprised the market by acquiring the company from the founding family. The decision was considered risky, as Estrela was facing a severe crisis, with stranded stocks and large unpaid tax debts with the government. Many predicted that it would be sold to foreign giants or even close its doors. Tilkian, however, bet on the power of the brand and the ability to reverse the adverse scenario.

Under his management, Estrela began a modernization process, relaunching classics and investing in licensing games inspired by popular TV programs, such as Show do Milhão, Big Brother Brasil and No Limite. China, once a competitor, began supplying electronic components for Estrela’s toys. Furthermore, it invested in digital influencers and new technological formats to communicate with younger audiences, such as the YouTuber Luluca doll, a hit among children and teenagers.

Wave of recoveries

Estrela’s case adds to a growing list of companies that have resorted to judicial recovery in recent months, including names known to Brazilian consumers, such as Bombril, Grupo Toky (controlling company of Tok&Stok and Mobly, which are facing financial difficulties amid the prolonged crisis in furniture and decoration retail); the CVLB Brasil Group (owner of retailers Casa & Video and Le Biscuit), and even in football, the difficulties caused victims such as SAF Botafogo, which went to court amid financial disputes and corporate restructuring.

All of this reflects an environment still marked by expensive credit and pressure on corporate cash.

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Thus, if judicial recovery was previously seen as an extreme resource, today it is increasingly being used as a financial reorganization tool to preserve operations, renegotiate liabilities and avoid bankruptcy. Not by chance, while recoveries advanced, bankruptcy filings fell 19% in 2025, according to Serasa.