It is rising dangerously again and this time it is no longer just about threats or diplomatic ultimatums. Definitive peace never seems to come.
The US military attacked military facilities in southern Iran on Wednesday and shot down four Iranian drones in an operation that Washington justified as “self-defense.”
The episode supposes a new military action in one of the most sensitive areas of the planet and it comes just when negotiations to close an agreement between both countries begin to deteriorate again. It’s a constant ‘deja vu’.
Explosions in Bandar Abbas
The first to warn of what happened were the Iranian state media themselves. At dawn they began to report several explosions near Bandar Abbas, the large Iranian port city located next to the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic point through which much of the world’s oil passes.
Shortly afterward, leaks began to appear from US military sources.
According to officials cited by media such as The New York Times, the United States had launched attacks against Iranian military facilities after detecting direct threats to American ships and commercial maritime traffic that still continues to cross the strait.
The drones that triggered all the alarms
The immediate trigger was four attack drones launched by Iran, But Washington assures that the aircraft represented a direct threat to US military ships. and for the few commercial ships that continue to transit Hormuz amid the partial Iranian blockade.
American forces ended up shooting them down. And that opened the door to a new chain of bombings and reprisals that has been spreading in the region for several days.
Trump completely toughens his speech
The offensive also coincides with a very clear hardening of Donald Trump’s speech, who publicly ruled out this Wednesday any possibility of allowing Iran any type of control over the Strait of Hormuz. “They are international waters, no one is going to control them”he stated during a cabinet meeting in the . “We are going to monitor them. We will monitor them, but no one is going to control them,” he added.
The phrase has enormous political weight because it comes after Iranian media disseminated an alleged pre-agreement according to which Tehran would agree to reopen maritime traffic.
The White House quickly denied that version.
The strait that can change the world economy
Everything revolves around a tiny place on the map… but gigantic for the global economy. Approximately a fifth of the oil traded in the world passes through the Strait of Hormuz.. And any tension there immediately triggers fear of: supply problems, a brutal rise in crude oil, global inflation and the risk of regional conflict.
That is why each military incident in the area generates immediate nervousness in markets and governments.
Negotiations appear increasingly fragile
The most striking thing is that this escalation occurs while the US and Iran continued officially negotiating.
In recent days, both parties had intensified contacts to try to close an agreement that would reduce tension and put an end to months of indirect confrontations. But the situation appears to be deteriorating rapidly.
Trump He had already toughened his tone, demanding that Iran hand over its enriched uranium, rejecting concessions on Hormuz and authorizing immediate military responses to any Iranian threat.
Meanwhile, Tehran insists it will not accept humiliating conditions.
The world looks at the Gulf again
The sensation in Washington and the Middle East It is beginning to be disturbing because, although officially both sides continue to talk about negotiations, on the ground the dynamics increasingly resemble a progressive military escalation: drones, selective attacks, bombings, nuclear threats and permanent tension around oil.
And in the midst of all this, the great global fear reappears: that any miscalculation in Hormuz will end up triggering a much greater crisis.
