The advance of () in the electoral race, after months behind (PSB) in voting intention polls, is attributed by allies and analysts to the approval of his management, the intensification of presence in the interior of the state and the attempt to keep the dispute concentrated on local issues.
shows the governor ahead of the former mayor of Recife in the second round simulation, with 51% to 44% of voting intentions. Blanks and nulls total 4%, and 1% did not know how to answer. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
The survey practically shows a reversal in the scenario compared to April, when he had 52% of voting intentions, and she, 42%. That month, Campos had the possibility of settling the election in the first stage, with .
The current survey, carried out from May 25th to 27th, also shows 67% approval for the state government. The rate is 72% among residents of the interior and 61% among those in the metropolitan region of Recife.
People close to the governor say that the result follows a movement perceived internally in recent months, mainly after a sequence of actions in areas such as public safety, health and housing.
Allies cite reforms in hospitals, measures aimed at housing and frequent agendas in the interior. The assessment around the governor is that the constant presence outside the metropolitan region has begun to produce electoral repercussions.
Raquel’s interlocutors also assess that stateizing the dispute favors the governor’s campaign. The reading is that the nationalization of the debate benefits João Campos, who has been reinforcing public ties with Lula.
On Thursday, for example, the former mayor published on social media that he had met with the president to talk about the platforms in Brazil and Pernambuco. The conversation, he said, would have been so good that he missed his flight back to Recife.
The governor, in turn, began to associate herself more and more with the symbols of Pernambuco, whether colors, pieces or even the flag, in addition to regularly repeating the motto “My country Pernambuco”. At Carnival, for example, .
Campos, in turn, since leaving Recife City Hall to run for government, intensified agendas in the interior and began to reinforce references to his father, former governor Eduardo Campos, and the period in which the PSB commanded Pernambuco.
The former mayor has also published on the networks actions linked to the federal government, celebrating actions of the Lula administration. During the rainy season in the state, he publicized conversations with the PT member and stated that he was available to mayors affected by the storms, even without holding a public position at that time.
His campaign also tries to reinforce an image of administrative continuity and popular proximity, a strategy similar to that used during his time in Recife City Hall. PSB interlocutors estimate that the metropolitan region should concentrate one of the former mayor’s main electoral fronts in the state dispute.
For Raquel’s allies, the governor’s focus must remain concentrated on the idea of physical presence in the state and the association between management and delivery capacity. Interlocutors also state that the campaign intends to expand dialogue with female voters, exploring an image linked to motherhood and the presence of a woman in charge of the state Executive.
For now, Raquel has greater voting intentions among men (53%, compared to 44% of women), in addition to other segments such as Flávio Bolsonaro voters (69%).
Campos is doing better among women (47%, compared to 38% of men) and Lula voters for president (55%).
Political scientist Adriano Oliveira dos Santos, professor at UFPE (Federal University of Pernambuco), states that the dispute in the state stopped assuming characteristics of rupture and began to approach a scenario of administrative continuity.
“This election is an election to move forward, it is not an election to change,” he said. According to him, the approval of the state administration reduced the political space for a candidacy sustained only in the expectation of renewal.
In the professor’s assessment, Raquel’s campaign managed to consolidate in the electorate the perception that the government “is working”, especially outside the metropolitan region. João Campos, according to him, runs the risk of creating an image excessively linked to the family legacy by reinforcing references to his father during the pre-campaign.
