“Get ready.” Preparation is needed for a possible El Niño event of great intensity that could arrive between this month and August, warns the UN.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) this Tuesday that there is 80% probability of an El Niño event developing between June and Augustwhich increases the risk of extreme weather events occurring in the coming months.
Furthermore, “the probability that this event will persist until at least November is close to or greater than 90%“, added the organization, which predicts an event “at least moderate, if not strong”.
The latest data from this United Nations agency shows that the “exceptionally high” temperatures of the tropical waters of the Pacific are creating favorable conditions for the formation of an El Niño event that “should influence temperature and precipitation patterns at a global level”.
The director general of the WMO stated that it is necessary to prepare for a possible El Niño event of great intensityensuring that the organization will collaborate with other scientific entities to anticipate what is to come as quickly as possible.
The aim is for governments, humanitarian organizations and all sectors sensitive to climate change to be able to take precautions in advance.
“Seasonal forecasts and early warnings are fundamental to saving lives and mitigating the impact on our economies and communities”, highlighted Celeste Saulo.
El Niño is characterized by the anomalous warming of surface waters in tropical areas of the Pacific, with impacts that are felt on a global scale. Although its effects vary from episode to episode, the phenomenon is associated with an increased risk of extreme weather events, such as droughts, intense rains, heat waves and fires.
Celeste Paulo also recalled that the 2023/2024 episode was one of the five most intense ever recorded and contributed to unprecedented global temperatures in 2024.
This time, the impacts could be particularly relevant in South America, which is historically one of the regions most affected by the most intense rains. On the other hand, there may be reductions in precipitation in central and northern South America, Central Africa, Indonesia and Australia, where the risk of forest fires increases due to the combination of heat and drought.
