GENEVA, June 2 (Reuters) – The United Nations meteorological agency on Tuesday predicted a moderate or possibly strong El Niño, which could raise global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather conditions in the coming months.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that typically lasts between nine and 🏽12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The WMO said warm ocean waters are driving the development of El Niño and predicted above-average temperatures across most of the world from June to August. The WMO said El Niño is likely to continue until November.
He also said that it is not known for sure what the intensity of El Niño will be, as models differ in their severity, but authorities have warned about the need to prepare.
‘We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rains and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean,’ said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures around the world and, at the same time, increasing rainfall in southern South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and Central Asia.
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El Niño could also cause droughts in Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of South Asia, as well as spur the formation of hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, the WMO said.
The last El Niño, which meteorologists said was strong, between 2023 and 2024, contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, Saulo said.
Saulo said other risks associated with extreme heat include greater spread of vector-borne diseases such as mosquitoes and ticks and reduced food and water supplies.
‘Communities that were already struggling will be pushed far beyond their limits,’ she said.
For consumers, who face inflation due to the war in Iran, food prices could rise even further because of El Niño.
Hein Schumacher, chief executive of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s largest cocoa processors, warned that harvests in the growing regions of Ecuador and West Africa, which account for 60% of global production, could be reduced.
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“This is something we are watching very cautiously,” he told the media in a call on Tuesday. ‘El Niño could have an effect that could lead to a few thousand per tonne.’
Some national meteorological agencies have predicted the strongest El Niño in a decade.
The WMO is more cautious, but said it has observed abnormally warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
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UN Secretary-General António Guterres said this was a reminder of the need for a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
‘The world must treat this as an urgent climate warning. El Niño conditions will add fuel to the fire of a warming world,’ he said.
(Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin; Additional reporting by Paolo Laudani in Gdansk)
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