The Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinián, has managed to renew his mandate after winning closely followed elections in both Moscow and Brussels, according to exit polls and the first data of the count, which at 11:00 p.m. had barely reached 6% of the polling stations. The vote comes after months of deteriorating relations between Armenia and Russia and a campaign marked by arrests in the former Russian republic of 2.9 million people.
If the results are confirmed, Nikol Pashinián obtains a new mandate at the head of the Armenian Government and begins after the defeat in Nagorno Karabakh. The victory also represents popular support for his strategy of diversifying international alliances and progressive distancing from Moscow, despite the pressure exerted by Russia in recent months.
The Strong Armenia coalition, led by Samvel Karapetyan, is consolidating itself as the main opposition force, although without achieving the necessary support to articulate an alternative government. Nor has the sum of the rest of the opposition parties been sufficient to reproduce at the national level the strategy that allowed several parties to recently seize the mayor’s office of Gyumri, the second largest city in the country, from the government party through a broad post-electoral coalition.
The result reinforces Pashinián’s position at a particularly delicate moment for Armenia, which continues to face the consequences of the loss of Nagorno Karabakh, border tensions with Azerbaijan, rapprochement with Turkey and the redefinition of its role in the South Caucasus.
Those in Armenia have been marked by strong political polarization, allegations of irregularities and growing geopolitical tension between Moscow and the West. Just two days before the vote, the Central Electoral Commission rejected a petition promoted by the Republican Party to exclude the Strong Armenia opposition coalition from the race, after the Prime Minister himself, Nikol Pashinián, publicly urged his opponents to formalize their claims through legal means during a televised debate.
Election day arrives. Various international media, including Reuters, have reported alleged Russian interference in the Armenian political process coinciding with Yerevan’s rapprochement with the European Union, the tensions derived from the economic sanctions imposed by Moscow and the arrest of several figures linked to the Strong Armenia coalition, led by businessman Samvel Karapetyan.
Voting day has not been without controversy either. While the Central Electoral Commission put the electoral roll at 2,505,102 citizens, the Ministry of the Interior later reported a lower figure of 19,251 people. At the same time, numerous videos spread on social networks showed citizens and journalists denouncing the appearance of unknown people registered at their homes.
Turnout reached 58.97%, almost ten points higher than in the 2021 elections, when it stood at 49.39%, and well above the levels recorded after the Velvet Revolution of 2018. The increase has been especially significant in the regions bordering Azerbaijan, including some areas affected by the Azerbaijani military occupation, reflecting the importance that a large part of Armenian society has given to the elections. considered decisive for the future of the country.
Authorities also reported multiple incidents related to the electoral process. The Central Electoral Commission confirmed the arrest of 45 people for alleged vote-buying crimes, while the Investigative Committee opened 59 criminal proceedings for alleged electoral violations, including cases of double voting, violation of the secrecy of suffrage and obstruction of electoral rights. Nine people remained detained at the closing of the schools.
The scrutiny is progressing slowly and the first official results are not expected until dawn. According to provisional data published after the count of the first 51 electoral colleges (from 2005, just 2.5% of the total), the government party Civil Contract, led by the prime minister, led the count with 69.2% of the votes.
However, as the count progressed, the results pointed to a reduction in the government party’s initial lead. According to data published by InfoCom.am after the count of 82 schools – just over 4% of the total – Civil Contract, the party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinián, remained in the lead with 56.4% of the votes. Shortly afterwards, when the count had advanced to 6% (129 polling stations), the percentage fell slightly to 52.5% of the votes.
The main opposition force, the Strong Armenia coalition, led by Samvel Karapetyan, obtained 25.4%, while the Armenian Alliance, linked to former president Robert Kocharyan, reached 11.6%. In fourth position was Prosperous Armenia, headed by Gagik Tsarukyan, with 4.8% of the votes.
Although the result is still provisional and corresponds to a very small part of the polling stations, the data reflects a reduction in the distance observed in the first counts, with a strengthening of the main opposition forces as new polling stations are incorporated into the scrutiny. However, Civil Contract continues to maintain a considerable advantage when barely more than 6% of the votes cast have been counted.
The evolution of the count during the next few hours will be decisive to confirm if the trend continues or if Pashinyan’s party manages to expand its lead again. In any case, the high participation registered in these elections confirms the importance that a large part of Armenian society has given to elections considered crucial for the political future of the country.
