The war they launched Donald Trump y Benjamin Netanyahu against the ayatollah regime last February has become a strategic gibberish that entangles Iran, Israel, the United States and Lebanon.
The American president appears incapable of undo the mess that he himself has created. He sees how his ally in the war ignores his instructions to stop the bombings against Lebanon to give negotiation with Iran a chance. He premier Israeli is, in turn, facing a new military reality: Iran shows signs of being emboldenedand now he no longer only hits back when attacked, but takes the initiative to impose retaliation to Israel when it attacks third parties, in this case its allies Hezbollah in Lebanon.
It is a change in the balance of power that does not favor Israeli interests in the region. For this reason, Tel Aviv is trying to blow up the peace talks: it wants to continue attacking Iran until the State collapses and stops challenging it for regional hegemony.
“There is a clear sense of confidence, victory and achievement in the new Iranian leadership. This makes it more willing to take risks that it previously avoided: for example, launching missiles against Israel for yesterday’s attack on Beirut,” the doctor assesses in conversation with EL PERIÓDICO. Once Zimmtdirector of Program on Iran of the Israel Institute for National Security Studies (Tel Aviv University, Israel).
This Monday, Iran launched several missiles against Israel after Tel Aviv broke the ceasefire agreed four days ago with new attacks on Hezbollah in the Lebanese capital, something that Trump had explicitly asked Netanyahu not to do. Israel, for its part, has responded by breaking the precarious ceasefire with Iran on April 8 and bombing several targets in the country, including the capital, Tehran.
After a new request from Washington, both have decided to suspend the crossfire.
Upper Galilee, northern Israel, June 8, 2026. A missile from the Israeli Iron Dome system crosses the sky to intercept incoming projectiles in the midst of a regional escalation between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah. / MARRIAGE CAT / AFP
but this Tehran’s new strategic impetus worries Tel Aviv. Until now, Iran did not attack directly if it had not been attacked before, except through its proxies. With this Monday’s initiative, the equation changes. And if the result of the war is this, it will have been a failure, criticizes the Israeli opposition to the Netanyahu government.
In the bombings of June last year, Iranian nuclear facilities damaged. In February of this year, a large part of the fleet and the aviation and the anti-aircraft defense systems, but the missile capacity of the Persian country remains and its fast boats are capable of maintaining the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Of course, Iran has also been weakened, especially in its militias proxies in the region. “Instead of the proxies help Iran and fight the war for them, as the Iranian advanced defense doctrinethis time it is Iran that has had to come to the support of its main regional ally, Hezbollah, because it has been greatly weakened,” says Raz Zimmt. “And the same applies to Israel. It does not seem that Israel can achieve it on its own meaningful goals in several days of combat against Iran, objectives that it was also unable to achieve together with the United States during 40 days of hostilities.
A ground attack by the US and Israel against Iran?
When the United States decided to accede to the Israeli proposal to launch a full-scale war against Iran, on February 28, it was assumed that command depended on the Pentagon, and that it would be Trump who would decide when the joint war ended. However, Netanyahu has continually disobeyed Trump, to the point that Trump has called him to order in unusual ways. “You’re fucking crazy. You’d be in jail if it weren’t for me. I’m saving your skin. Now everyone hates you. “Everyone hates Israel for this,” the US president told the Israeli prime minister in a phone call on June 2, according to senior administration officials. Axios.
“When there were negotiations between Hamas and Israel, Israel killed the leader of Hamas. In the midst of another round of talks, Israel attacked Qatar. Now, Israel attacks Iran while there are negotiations. It seems that Israel will move forward to achieve its objectives and taking into account their national objectives, without taking into account what the United States or the region wants,” he points out. Osama bin Javaid on Al Jazeera.
Tehran, June 8, 2026. The Iranian Army announces the end of its military operations against Israel, but warns that it will attack again if Israel resumes hostilities against Lebanon. / IRNA NEWS AGENCY / EFE
From the Israeli perspective, the best scenario is not the peace that the United States is trying to achieve with Iran, but the weakening of the ayatollah regime.
“The number one priority for Israel is to deal with the iranian nuclear program. Today it seems highly unlikely that Iran and the United States will be able to reach a satisfactory agreement that resolves all the issues that Israel considers important: not just the enriched uranium 60% or 20%, but also the underground facilitiesuranium enriched to lower percentages and advanced centrifugescontributes Raz Zimmt. “It is clear that Iran will not accept real concessions on these points. Therefore, from the Israeli point of view, The best scenario would be to resume the war, but this time with the objective of reducing, through military and operational means, the Iran’s nuclear leeway as much as possible. It would involve some type of special operation with ground forces, not without risks. The reviews in Israel in recent weeks they maintain that, if this operation is carried out, it could have a very significant impact on the Iranian nuclear program.
It would be a ground assault on the Isfahan or Fordo nuclear facilities. They would not be able to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program, but they would, they maintain in Israel, neutralize important parts of its nuclear capabilities through a joint military operation with the United States.
Lebanon, negotiating card?
In the middle of all this Strategic gibberish remains in Lebanonwhich is in turn a deeply complex country.
On the one hand, the Lebanese Government defends the ceasefire and the negotiation with Israel sponsored by the United States; on the other, the Shiite Islamist militia Hezbollah assures that it will defend Lebanon and expel Israel from the recently occupied area in the south of the country.
“It is not your country, it is our country. Iran is using Lebanon as a negotiating card”said Joseph Aoun, the Lebanese president. “Listening to President Aoun, one would think that it is Iran that is occupying Lebanon. If Iran was using Lebanon as a negotiating card, it would have reached an agreement long ago. Save Lebanon from its real enemy, Mr. President.”responded Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister.
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