The sharing has generated apprehension about investment in federal deputy campaigns. The acronym will have R$881.6 million, the second largest share in the ranking, but leaders are concerned about the concentration of this amount given the priority of (PL-RJ) candidacies for the Presidency and also of senators.
PL chiefs look closely at the União Progressista federation. The majority of the electoral fund is concentrated, with R$943.3 million. Unlike Jair Bolsonaro’s acronym, however, this “super party” from the center will prioritize the election of federal deputies and plans to spend at least R$400 million just to increase its bench in the Chamber.
União Brasil and PP currently have 98 deputies and, with the federation, will function as a single party in this year’s election. This alliance model facilitates the election of deputies, as the number of people elected to the Chamber and Legislative Assemblies is made using a proportional system, with the division of seats based on the votes that each party receives.
The PL occupies 97 seats in the House and intends to elect 115 representatives in the House this year. This desire, however, will initially need to be reconciled with Flávio Bolsonaro. The party estimates an initial investment in the presidential candidacy of around R$120 million.
The expectation of party leaders is that the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) will maintain the ceiling for presidential candidacies close to that of the last election. The assessment is based on the understanding that the electoral fund did not undergo significant changes between 2022 and 2026, remaining at around R$4.9 billion, so the spending limit should not be significantly corrected either.
This year, the launch of its own candidates in the states to guarantee Flávio’s candidacy the greatest number of platforms in Brazil. The party must have around 15 government names and up to 30 names. Such a stance will require significant investments from the electoral fund.
Behind the scenes of the acronym, the estimated expenditure per candidate for senator will be on average R$4 million, which could be higher depending on the state. According to this forecast, around R$120 million will be committed.
The Senate dispute belonged to former president Bolsonaro, who intends to win the majority and command of the House to approve agendas contrary to the STF (Supreme Federal Court) and promote the impeachment of court ministers. Despite being arrested, he remains honorary president of the PL.
Campaigns for governor suffer the greatest volatility. The candidacy of , for example, could consume up to R$26.5 million from the electoral fund, from the PL’s perspective. The eventual launch of one would be in the same order of magnitude. Arthur Henrique, in Roraima, will be able to spend R$5.4 million in the event of a second round.
The preliminary calculation of PL expenses indicates that investment in majority candidacies could reach R$360 million, if the party’s pre-candidates remain viable and competitive. This leaves R$521 million to be divided between national and state candidates.
Last month, the president of the PL, published a resolution defining the division of the fund between the national leadership and the states. According to the document, 70% of the resources will be delivered to the PL’s state directorates, while 30% will be the responsibility of the national directorate.
In other words, around R$265 million will be reserved for applications that the PL leadership considers to be a priority. Party congressmen say they believe that Flávio’s campaign will consume almost half of this amount, if the legal limit remains at around R$130 million.
It is also from this reserve that investments should come from for possible second round disputes, according to members of the PL. Details about the distribution of the fund, however, will still be defined by the party.
The resolution says that the 70% allocated to the states will be distributed among the federation units in proportion to the number of deputies and senators elected in 2022, in addition to the nominal number of votes for federal deputies.
Centrão parties see an opportunity to gain an advantage over the PL. The election of federal deputies is considered crucial for the survival of parties because it is the main calculation factor for the division of the party fund and also the next electoral fund.
Leaders of União Brasil-PP are betting on the sum of the proportional vote, on the larger electoral fund, on the absence of a national candidacy and, also, on the volatility of Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy.
There was a concentration of Bolsonarists in the PL during the party window. Deputies migrated to the party wanting a more direct association with the image of Flávio Bolsonaro, including to guarantee the number “22” on the ballot box.
Such a movement could have a reverse effect, the center’s leaders calculate. In this assessment, if Flávio Bolsonaro continues to suffer from crises like the “” case, the vote by federal deputies will also be shaken as it is an ideological vote.
