SpaceX or Blue Origin: who is ahead in the “space race” of billionaires

The advance in increasingly materializes the company’s real value: with the expectation of raising US$ 75 billion in its debut on the Nasdaq, the company is targeting a valuation of up to US$ 1.8 trillion. While the company moves towards market evaluation, one of its main competitors, Blue Origin, remains a mystery among analysts and investors.

Since it was created in 2010, the space exploration company Blue Origin has been financed exclusively by private investments coming from the generous pockets of its founder, billionaire Jeff Bezos. For years, this has prevented the market from defining the company’s valuation over time — or even any value basis.

“Unlike SpaceX, which over the last few years has had sequences of rounds in the secondary market and is now heading towards the IPO, at Blue Origin there is no time series of markings by which the market could build a reference”, assesses the director of the Eclipseon family office, Ricardo Simon. “Any number circulating today is a speculative exercise”, says the manager with positions in SpaceX and another competitor, Rocket Lab.

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It looked like the scenario could change in the coming months. Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp told employees at an all-hands meeting that the company would need external investment to significantly increase the frequency of launches, the Financial Times reported in May. The fundraising would even seek to take advantage of investor appetite for the aerospace industry promoted by SpaceX’s IPO.

But plans may have changed late last month.

One on the night of May 28th could put the company’s entire delivery schedule into question, as the incident compromised the launch base, with longer reconstruction times. “The reasonable estimate is that Blue Origin will go at least twelve months without launching while the infrastructure is rebuilt. The entire calendar needs to be pushed forward a year”, says Simon.

Two days before the accident, NASA announced a US$188 million contract with Blue Origin to build lunar exploration vehicles. Another $280.4 million could be added with two new service offerings. The incident could delay not only the company’s own goals, but also the missions of the American space agency that planned to put a man back on the Moon by 2028.

SpaceX vs. Blue Origin: which is the most valuable?

The entire incident makes it even more challenging to set a value for Blue Origin, although it makes it more evident that there is a difference in business maturity compared to its main competitor, SpaceX, about to make its IPO.

Furthermore, SpaceX is now home to billionaire Elon Musk’s other lines of business, such as xAI, for artificial intelligence, and Starlink, for internet via satellites. “A relevant part of SpaceX’s current valuation is anchored in integration with artificial intelligence, both in terrestrial infrastructure and in orbital projects that are still being built”, points out Simon.

Blue Origin, explains the manager, has operations essentially focused on aircraft launches and government contracts. Last Thursday’s accident delays the start of what would be an additional line of business for the company: a constellation of satellites similar to Starlink announced earlier this year.

Comparison between SpaceX and Blue Origin