Hopes for peace between Iran and the United States grow this Friday, after US President Donald Trump said an agreement could be signed as soon as this weekend, even as Tehran insists it has not made a final decision on a pact. The Republican says that yes, that everything is done, that the race “ended today,” literally.
The deal, if confirmed, would be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough yet to end the three-month war, which has killed thousands of people and sent global energy prices sharply higher after Iran virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. That bottleneck through which 20% of the world’s crude oil passed and whose blockage is causing the prices of absolutely everything to rise.
“We just reached a great deal on the war with Iran,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. “The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon, maybe over the weekend in Europe,” he said, adding that Vice President JD Vance would attend the signing of the agreement on his behalf.
Asked whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mokhtaba Khamenei (successor of Ali, his father, assassinated on February 28, on the first day of the joint operation with Israel), had approved the deal, Trump said: “I understand the answer is yes.”
Since mid-March, Trump has repeatedly claimed that he was close to reaching a deal with Iran to end the war. Even when the maximum period for which a president can carry out armed operations without informing Congress, 60 days, was reached, he said that everything had already been done, precisely to avoid this obligation, one of the reasons that make this war illegal, along with the lack of evidence to justify that it is legitimate defense.
On the contrary, the two sides exchanged attacks this week, seriously, forcing a ceasefire announced in April and that was being held on pins and needles. The harshness of Israel’s barrage in Lebanon has been key to heating up the area, which in these two weeks entered into a truly dangerous dynamic of give and take.
Iranian media quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying that much of the deal has been finalized but that Iran will not budge on its red lines. “We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter,” he said. “This is a very important issue that is currently being reviewed by the relevant decision-making bodies.”
“We have not reached a final conclusion on this matter”
Still, tension remained high around the Strait of Hormuz, with US forces shooting down two Iranian one-way attack drones after Tehran tried to attack commercial ships transiting the vital waterway, a US official said.
Iran’s military prevented an oil tanker from transiting the strait, state media said, reporting the sound of explosions early on Friday. He maintains that he was trying to cross Hormuz “without permission.” They have called it a “pirate ship.” Explosions have been heard around, but the consequences are unknown.
Ships in the Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas beach, Iran, June 11, 2026.
The agreement
Trump’s announcement came after he canceled planned military strikes against Iran, citing progress in talks. “It’s a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a bit conceptual,” he told reporters. The president has repeatedly said that any peace agreement must ensure that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking such a weapon.
Iran’s demands include lifting international sanctions, releasing billions of dollars in frozen assets and recognizing its control of the Strait of Hormuz. “The most important thing is that there will be no nuclear weapons in Iran. That means they will not be developed or purchased,” Trump said later during a campaign event held by phone.
The digital Axioswhich has proven to have the best sources in this conflict, has given more concrete details about the alleged agreement. The memorandum, he insists, demands the immediate reopening of Hormuz without tolls in 30 days and the lifting of sanctions on Iran based on its compliance, according to a diplomat from one of the mediating countries and a US official whom he cites as a source.
The document would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, including Lebanon, which is a radical demand from Iran, which Tel Aviv has tried strenuously to leave out because it wanted free rein to continue fighting against the Hezbollah militia party, without success. In those two months, nuclear negotiations would be held, which is a thorny issue that needs more calm.
The text includes a framework for addressing Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium (believed to be around 450 kilograms, according to the UN), although any action on Iran’s nuclear program would depend on a second, more detailed agreement. But the basis would be to never acquire an atomic weapon and resolve the conflict over its uranium.
A diplomat from one of the mediating countries, who explained to Axios the most recent text, stated that indeed “the United States and Iran have agreed on the text of the agreement”, that is, this time the North American president is telling the truth, but acknowledged that final approval was still required.
According to two diplomats from two mediating countries and two US officials, the preliminary agreement was reached on Wednesday night after hours of negotiations between Qatari mediator Ali Al-Thawadi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. During the talks in Tehran, Al-Thawadi spoke by phone several times with Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to two sources cited by the digital. Trump’s announcement about finalizing the deal surprised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In recent days, Netanyahu was in a situation of uncertainty, calling close allies of the Trump administration to try to gather information, according to a US source with direct knowledge.
A senior US official said that Trump accepted that one of the options to resolve the problem could be reducing the enrichment of Iranian uranium within the country, under the supervision of UN inspectors, something he had initially refused. I preferred to take it. Any action on Iran’s nuclear program would only be taken if a second deal is reached, an uncertain prospect given the difficulty of the much less technical negotiations on the memorandum of understanding.
Regarding Hormuz, the text demands the immediate reopening of the strait without tolls, with a return to pre-war maritime transport volumes within 30 days. In exchange, the US blockade would also be lifted. Following the reopening of the strait, Iran would receive a temporary exemption from sanctions that would allow it to sell oil for 60 days. This would generate valuable revenue for Tehran. Sanctions relief would increase if Iran abides by the initial agreement and demonstrates good faith in subsequent negotiations.
“There is no fixed date for the lifting of sanctions and it will be subject to the implementation of the agreement,” said the diplomat. It is unclear whether the text includes any detailed explanation of what will happen to the billions of Iranian dollars frozen abroad. Iran has insisted it must receive some of the money immediately after any initial deal is signed, while the United States has said it would be released in installments based on compliance.
The US, Iran and Qatar discussed in recent days a mechanism through which Iran would gain access to part of its funds frozen in Qatar for the purchase of humanitarian goods, according to a US official and a source from one of the mediating countries.
a headache
The conflict has become a political headache for the White House, with polls showing Trump’s approval ratings sinking amid voter anger over high gas prices.
Some Republicans have openly expressed concern that the war’s unpopularity could cost them control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
But Trump’s political considerations also include convincing Iran hawks within his Republican Party, who thwarted an earlier effort, that any deal closes Tehran’s path to developing a nuclear weapon. The reaction of other Middle Eastern powers will also be crucial.
Trump said on social media that the deal had been approved by countries including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Netanyahu’s Israel office said in a statement after the Israeli leader and Trump spoke that Israel was not part of the memorandum of understanding with Iran.
Netanyahu expressed gratitude for Trump’s commitment to securing a deal that includes eliminating enriched material, dismantling enrichment infrastructure, limiting missile production and ending support for regional proxies, the summary shows.
Tehran has been demanding an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, where fighting has continued in a parallel war between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants.
