Qeshm Island, the largest in Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz
Hormuz is no longer closed. But it’s not completely open either. The Trump administration is turning to Russian “shadow fleet” tactics to get ships moving.
When US President Donald Trump said he would open the Strait of Hormuz, what he apparently meant was that the United States would promote the kind of shady practices that fuel the “shadow fleets” from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, says the .
Many of the ships now entering or leaving Hormuz they do it in the darkwith tracking devices turned off. The aim is to avoid detection by Iran, which fires at vessels that it considers irregular and charges tolls to others.
This means that the Strait of Hormuz It’s not so closed how the world thought. But the crucial sea route is far from being fully open. It’s a kind of ““, which is alive and dead at the same time, in a geopolitical version.
Dozens of ships, including many oil tankers, have crossed the strait in recent days under the watchful eye of the US Navyfollowing an unconventional route that skirts the coast of Omaninstead of staying on the traditional route, through the middle of the strait, or passing through the toll post that Tehran installed on the north bank.
This is one of the reasons why oil prices remainedin general terms, at around 90 dollars, instead of soaring, despite the decrease in world oil reserves and the accumulation of deficits caused by 100 days of war.
Harder to explain is the fact that oil prices remained contained even when Trump intensified threats of renewed hostilities against Iran, including the seizure of its oil industry. A few hours later, backed away from these threats.
Trump said the US operation allowed 100 million barrels of oil to breach the Iranian blockade, which would be equivalent to about 2.5 million barrels per day since early May, or about one-sixth of the pre-war total.
It’s a start, but it’s far from a return to normality. “We’re not even close to that yet,” he said. Gregory Brew, analist for Iran at Eurasia Group. “There was always room for some ships to escape, but 2 to 3 million barrels per day is probably the upper limit”.
What appears to be happening is that some of the stranded ships, including oil tankers, began to leave discreetly from the Persian Gulf with shipments of oil taken from the reserves of countries such as Iraq and Kuwait.
It is not Iranian oil that is leaving (Iran’s exports have fallen to less than 250,000 barrels per day), but mainly some crude oil from other major OPEC members.
Essentially, stranded ships are using the emergency lane to escape a monumental traffic jam: nIt is not a sustainable solutionbut it is understandable.
The problem is that the exports that are managing to leave come from reservesnot new production — which remains interrupted and will probably remain that way for months.
This is a situation where take it off one side and put it on the other. A few million more barrels per day prevent oil prices from reaching triple digits. But not if those barrels are coming out of savings.
In any case, says The Atlantic, it is interesting that the US Navy is work at full steam to ensure that 1/6 of the flows pre-war oil reserves can exit through the strait.
This flow may not be sustainableespecially given Trump’s intermittent threats. But for now at least, seems to be working.
