Europe is facing a race against time. According to senior German officials and NATO intelligence services, there is a real threat that Russia will rebuild its military capabilities enough to attack an Alliance member state by the end of this decade. The situation is also complicated by the imminent reduction of the American military presence in Europe, reports the portal.
Commander of the German Army lieutenant general Christian Freuding at the Berlin air show, he confirmed that there was broad agreement among the Allies about the impending danger. “2029 is not just a German time estimate. It is based on intelligence coordinated within NATO. All 32 partners agree that Russia could have the capability to attack an allied country this year.” Freuding stated that Moscow could decide to attack even earlier.
The same message is interpreted by the German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, who points out that after 25 years of belief in permanent peace, Europe must wake up. According to him, the West has ignored the warning signs for too long. The Northern European countries reacted to the changed security situation earlier, but the rest of Europe “pressed the snooze button”, he writes.
Despite the huge losses in Ukraine, which Kiev estimates at more than 1.3 million victims and a huge amount of equipment, Russia is massively arming. By 2036, Moscow plans to invest approximately one trillion dollars in defense, which represents 7.5 to 10% of its GDP. It already significantly surpasses NATO countries in the production of ammunition, missiles and drones.
In addition, Nordic intelligence findings show that Russia is actively expanding military infrastructure along its northwestern borders. Within one to three years, Moscow plans to deploy up to 115,000 soldiers directly on the borders with the Baltic and Nordic states.
In response, Germany is undergoing its most massive military expansion since World War II. It is moving from a budget bound by severe debt brakes to investments that are expected to reach one trillion dollars in the next decade. General Freuding emphasizes that speed is key. The German military cannot wait for long-term weapons programs, but needs “interim solutions” to be immediately ready for combat at any time.
For Europe, the situation is all the more urgent because the United States, under the leadership of the Donald Trump administration, has formally alerted allies to plans to significantly reduce its conventional forces dedicated to crisis situations in Europe. The cuts are to include halving the number of strategic bombers intended for NATO and significant restrictions on the deployment of naval forces and submarines. The aim of this move is to force Europe to take primary responsibility for its own defence.
Although Minister Pistorius does not expect the US to leave the Alliance completely, he admits that American support will be less in the future. In his statement, he therefore addressed a direct challenge to Washington. “We understand that you want and need to do less in terms of conventional deterrence in Europe, but give us a chance to tone it down. Give us time to fill in these dangerous gaps so we can defend ourselves,” he said.
