The agreement on the opening of the may have rekindled hopes for an immediate relief of the energy crisis, but the reality at the bottom of it is proving to be much more complicated.
Behind his optimism that “the oil will flow both ways again” lurks the most critical and dangerous question of the day ahead: Has the planet’s most strategic passage been mined, and if so, how quickly can modern forces neutralize the seabed’s “smart” bombs?
Minehunting: The Blurred Landscape
So far, it is not even certain whether the Iranians have actually planted naval mines, as dozens of ships have passed through the Straits during the war unscathed. Although the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in March that it struck 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, the actual outcome of these operations remains unclear
At the same time, the US president said on Monday that the Straits are already partially open and that forces in the region are doing a small hunt for some mines. At the same time, Donald Trump is expected to officially request the assistance of European leaders, noting that it would not hurt to send a ship or two from some countries to strengthen operations.
European assistance
The response from the European side seems to be immediate. Britain said last month it could deploy mine-detecting drones as part of a multinational mission to secure the Straits. French President Emmanuel Macron followed suit, saying on Monday that France was fully prepared to send minesweepers within days of the formal confirmation of the peace deal.
However, their task will not be easy. Before hostilities began, US intelligence estimated that Iran possessed about 5,000 mines of various types. This arsenal ranges from relatively primitive mines that float just below the surface of the sea, to state-of-the-art, sophisticated weapons that sit on the seabed and use a combination of sensors to locate and strike their targets.
Drones vs. “smart” mines: The new high-tech war
To locate and clear any mines lurking in the Strait of Hormuz, the US Navy will conduct searches from the air, but will also scan the sea, both on the surface and in deep water. Although sea mines have been used for hundreds of years with devastating results, this time the international community is relying on drones as a new and effective countermeasure.
The US Navy has retired most of the old Avenger-class minesweepers, which were built with wood and fiberglass hulls to pass over mines without detonating them. These vessels have now been replaced by steel-hulled littoral combat ships, which are designed to stay out of danger zones, sending helicopters and drones in their place to spot threats.
The downside
However, this new strategy comes with a serious drawback. As Scott Savitz, a senior engineer and professor at the RAND think tank who has worked for the Navy’s mine warfare command, explains, the littoral combat ship has a key problem in that it cannot enter a minefield itself.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that modern naval mines have evolved into high-tech weapons, making them much more difficult to detect than in the past.
Some of these mines can detect the sound of mining gear around them and slide deeper into the water, thus avoiding cutting the chains that keep them tied to the bottom. Others have special “ship counters”, which allow them to detonate after a certain number of ships have passed, which can cause massive destruction in the middle of a convoy.
The Navy has fielded a variety of unmanned vehicles in recent years, including the drone-boat that last week rescued the two-member crew of a U.S. Apache attack helicopter that went down near the Straits. Some of these vehicles can play a key role in mine warfare, such as the Common Unmanned Surface Vehicle which scans for mines and the Knifefish, which is designed to dive deep for a closer examination of the seabed using sonar.
Nevertheless, the difficulties remain great. Scott Savitch emphasizes that the process is extremely painstaking, since if the mines are on the seabed, analysts must distinguish them from rock outcrops, various debris in crowded shipping lanes, and objects that have been thrown into the sea over decades or even centuries.
How is neutralization done?
Drones
To map the seabed, the Navy also uses underwater drones that emit side-scan sonar. Typically, divers program the coordinates of a specific search grid into self-propelled, torpedo-like vessels, called autonomous underwater vehicles, and transport them in small boats to drop them into the water. From there, these vehicles navigate themselves, maintaining a constant distance from the bottom and emitting sonar waves to detect any mines.
Robot
When the vehicle is towed back to the boat or mothership, its data is transferred to a computer. This compiles all the information into a single image, which can be quickly scanned by experts to detect mine-like objects. If something suspicious is found, divers return to the site to further investigate the area with a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which they direct directly at the object using video cameras. Many of these ROVs have special arms with calipers that can place explosive charges on the mines to destroy them.
Divers
If technological methods fail, the situation becomes more personal and dangerous. Navy Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) technicians use special equipment that reduces noise, bubbles and their magnetic signature and dive towards the suspected mine. In the murky water, they use portable sonar devices to locate the target, which they either neutralize and bring to the surface for intelligence gathering, or destroy by placing explosives before moving away from the water.
Diving on “influence-fired” mines, which sit on the seabed waiting for ships to pass and are triggered by a combination of magnetic, seismic, acoustic and pressure sensors, are by far the most dangerous. This is the only scenario in which US military divers are trained to dive completely on their own, without any ropes or buoys connecting them to the surface.
The hard logic behind this practice is that if the mine explodes, it is better to lose one sailor than two. Notably, during mine-sweeping operations after the 1991 Persian Gulf War, EOD technicians who dived such minesweepers were awarded the Bronze Star for valor in recognition of the extreme dangers they faced.
50,000 US troops on standby
Pentagon officials and other U.S. officials said Monday it was too early to say what will happen to the more than 50,000 U.S. troops committed to the Iran mission after Friday’s scheduled signing ceremony. These forces are currently scattered throughout the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
The bulk of those forces, as well as two aircraft carriers and dozens of fighter jets in the Middle East, are expected to remain on standby for at least several more days. This is considered necessary in order for Trump administration officials to assess whether the initial agreement to open the Straits will hold in practice.
If the deal proves solid, the Pentagon is likely to quietly begin redeploying thousands of troops, including forces from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, special operations commandos and some Navy ships.
But if fighting resumes or the deal appears shaky, American forces will remain in place for longer. As Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Sunday, the government will ensure that the military option remains on the table and that the military force remains there for as long as necessary.
