New CNT/MDA research released this Tuesday (16) shows the president () ahead in the electoral race, with 49.3% of voting intentions in the second round, against 36.8% for the senator (-RJ) — an advantage of 12.5 points.
In the previous survey, in April, the difference was 4.7 points. The PT member scored 44.9% in the direct confrontation simulation, compared to 40.2% for the former president’s son (PL).
The PT pre-candidate also leads in the first round. Lula has 41.8% (in April it was 39.2%), and Flávio, 28.2% (before it was 30.2%).
The institute also included the names of (), Joaquim Barbosa (DC), (), (Missão), () and () in the scenario of the first stage of voting. Caiado has 4% of voting intentions; Zema, 2.8%; Barbosa, 2.3%; Renan, 2%; Temer, 1.9%; and Cury, 1.8%.
The MDA research adopted a mixed methodology, carrying out face-to-face interviews at homes and at flow points. From June 10th to 14th, a total of 2,002 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed, a universe that corresponds to an estimated margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. The confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered under number BR-04256/2026.
Lula would beat any of the tested competitors in the second round. He would surpass the former governor of Goiás by 48.4% to 32.2%, the former governor of Minas Gerais by 48.8% to 31.6% and the leader of .
Against Barbosa, Cury and Temer, the PT member has from 47.5% to 49.5%, while those appear with percentages of 24.9% to 28.9%.
Rejection
Temer, Flávio and Lula are those who accumulate the biggest rejections. If the former president were a candidate, 64.2% of those interviewed responded that they would not vote for him. 56.5% say they would not vote for the PL pre-candidate, while 45.7% said the same in relation to the PT candidate.
Caiado was rejected by 33.5% of those interviewed, a number close to that of Zema, 35.8%. Renan Santos records 31%; Cury, 27.5%; and Barbosa, 30.5%.
Government assessment
In the opinion of 35.3%, President Lula’s government is good or excellent, while 34.3% consider the PT’s administration to be bad or terrible. Another 29.2% classify it as regular. 1.1% did not respond.
In April, the positive assessment was 32.1%, and the negative was 37.2%. The regular rate reached 29.4%. Non-respondents accounted for 1.2%.
